Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 180127 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 927 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 926 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 FORECAST SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL ON TRACK. CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO SCATTER OUT...THOUGH A FEW STRAGGLERS AROUND THE 5K RANGE REMAIN. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE NW...AND SHOULD BE NEARLY OVER MUCH OF KY BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS WE CONTINUE TO CLEAR...AND WINDS CEASE...STILL EXPECTING SOME DEGREE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA AND MUCH OF THE SURROUNDING AREAS. KEPT PREVIOUS FOG FORECAST...BUT WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED IT TO SOME OF THE MORE EASTERN VALLEYS AS WELL. WHILE THERE COULD BE A FEW DENSER AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER...STILL EXPECTING MUCH OF THE CWA TO REMAIN ABOVE 1/4 MILE IN THE PATCHY TO AREA COVERAGE CATEGORY. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND WINDS IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST 9PM OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. THIS DRYING SHOULD ALLOW MOST OF THE REMAINING CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD MOVE IN DUE A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE TN REGION. THAT BEING SAID...SEEMS LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THERE ARE CLEARER SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. SO WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. BY SATURDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE BASE OF THE LOW...CROSSING THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BRING A SURGE OF MOIST AIR INTO EAST KENTUCKY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAKING IT INTO POINTS SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH FOR YOU TO ENJOY A WARM AND SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 500 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...CONTINUING THE WET WEATHER TREND ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE STILL LOOKS LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE...SO HAVE STUCK WITH THE FOCUS ON LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE RAIN ACTIVITY AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BETTER SEVERE THREAT IF THE PASSAGE IS LATER IN THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN MONDAY EVENING...WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TUESDAY. THE MODELS THEN START TO DIVERGE MORE THEREAFTER...MAKING FOR A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE ECMWF LINGERS CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH BRIEF SHOTS OF MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WHILE THE GFS FLATTENS THE FLOW AND ALLOWS FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO RETURN FROM THE WSW. FOR NOW...SIDED A BIT MORE WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER ECMWF...GIVEN ITS OVERALL BETTER PERFORMANCE THIS FAR OUT COMPARED TO THAT OF THE GFS. THIS RESULTED IN SLIGHTLY LOWER PRECIP CHANCES THAN THE BLENDED GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...AND THEN LOOK TO AVERAGE NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 803 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH A FEW INTERMITTENT VFR CLOUDS...ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT OVER EASTERN KY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. KEPT WITH MVFR VIS IN THE LOZ...JKL...SJS...SYM TAF SITES AND ALTERNATE MINS AT THE SME TAF SITE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z. HOWEVER...EXACT VIS RESTRICTIONS AT EACH INDIVIDUAL TAF SITE COULD VARY. BY 12 TO 13Z...DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOG TO SCATTER OUT...AND MOSTLY CLEAR VFR CONDITIONS TO ENSUE. EXPECT SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM...THOUGH NO OTHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10KTS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...JVM/SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...JMW

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