Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 172100 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 500 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. THIS DRYING SHOULD ALLOW MOST OF THE REMAINING CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD MOVE IN DUE A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE TN REGION. THAT BEING SAID...SEEMS LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THERE ARE CLEARER SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. SO WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. BY SATURDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE BASE OF THE LOW...CROSSING THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BRING A SURGE OF MOIST AIR INTO EAST KENTUCKY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAKING IT INTO POINTS SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH FOR YOU TO ENJOY A WARM AND SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASUREABLE PRECIP WILL BE AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 500 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...CONTINUING THE WET WEATHER TREND ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE STILL LOOKS LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE...SO HAVE STUCK WITH THE FOCUS ON LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE RAIN ACTIVITY AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BETTER SEVERE THREAT IF THE PASSAGE IS LATER IN THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN MONDAY EVENING...WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TUESDAY. THE MODELS THEN START TO DIVERGE MORE THEREAFTER...MAKING FOR A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE ECMWF LINGERS CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH BRIEF SHOTS OF MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WHILE THE GFS FLATTENS THE FLOW AND ALLOWS FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO RETURN FROM THE WSW. FOR NOW...SIDED A BIT MORE WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER ECMWF...GIVEN ITS OVERALL BETTER PERFORMANCE THIS FAR OUT COMPARED TO THAT OF THE GFS. THIS RESULTED IN SLIGHTLY LOWER PRECIP CHANCES THAN THE BLENDED GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...AND THEN LOOK TO AVERAGE NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME BREAKING UP THIS AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN RECENT VIS IMAGERY TRENDS...EXPECT MUCH OF THE REMAINING CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE BREAKING UP AND CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AND SO HAVE PUT IFR VIS IN THE LOZ...JKL...SJS...SYM TAF SITES AND ALTERNATE MINS AT THE SME TAF SITE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AROUND 13Z. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JVM/SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...JVM

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