Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 181900 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 300 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS COMING TO EASTERN KENTUCKY BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE START OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. BASED ON THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM12 MODELS...THE FIRST RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE RAIN WILL THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA...WITH ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY SEEING SOME ACCUMULATING RAINFALL BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WELL...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION...AND INTERACTS WITH THE FAIRLY MOIST AIR MASS THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THE STORMS COULD BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY...AFTER THE SUN IS UP AND THE FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TOMORROW EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. A LULL IN THE PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY DUE TO ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MEAGER WITH THE QPF AND MOISTURE IS SHALLOW WITH PWATS AROUND AOA 0.80 DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THEREFORE KEEP QPF AROUND A QUARTER OF A INCH IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SETUP AND PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S BY TUESDAY AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S AT TIMES. MODELS ARE A BIT MORE DIVERGENT AS WE MOVE INTO THE LONGER RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS WANTS TO BRING A WEAK WAVE ACROSS THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE A BIT DRIER. THERE SEEMS TO ALSO BE A WEAKER FRONT DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL...HOWEVER GIVEN THAT THE QPF IS QUITE LOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SLIGHT POPS GIVEN IN THE BLEND. THESE POPS PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AT THIS POINT AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE GUIDANCE IN THIS PERIOD. THEN WE TURN OUR EYES TO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL AID IN SPREADING OVERRUNNING PRECIP EAST INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. THE GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE...BUT BOTH MODELS THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LEAST HAVE THE GENERAL SETUP AS WE MOVE INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM IS ALSO CORROBORATED BY THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WITH DECENT CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL RUN. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE RANGE ON FRIDAY AS MOST THE BETTER DYNAMICS COME INTO PLAY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHICH ARE BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 NOT TOO MUCH WILL BE GOING ON AT THE AIRPORTS UNTIL EARLY TONIGHT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LAYER OF HIGH CIRRUS...WITH A FEW CUMULUS SCUD DRIFTING PAST BENEATH...WILL BE ALL THERE IS TO SPEAK OFF IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. THE FIRST MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL BETWEEN 6 AND 7Z...WHEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE RAIN COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES AFTER 11Z...WITH PERHAPS A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS COULD WORSEN DRAMATICALLY DURING ANY THUNDERSTORMS...WITH IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR BRIEF PERIODS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...AR

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