Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 171210 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 810 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 809 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS JUST TO THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. THIS HAS ALSO SPAWNED A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. RECENT RADAR RETURNS HINT AT SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MAYBE DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH SO HAVE LEFT POPS IN THROUGH MIDDAY. AS WELL HAVE PUT FOG IN THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA AND CLEARING SKIES LATER TODAY...AS WELL A MOIST SURFACE LAYER AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVING INTO KENTUCKY FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. AT THIS TIME...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MI IS POISED TO SLOWLY CREEP SOUTHEAST. IN THIS AREA OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...A BIT OF CLEARING MAY MAKE IT INTO EAST KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE PRESENT OVER THE AREA MAY RESULT IN SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS DAWN. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE A TOUGH CALL WITH CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE PUT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST TO COVER THIS BUT WILL ALSO MONITOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS DAWN. IN ADDITION TO THIS...A WEAK REMNANT TROUGH SLIDING EAST AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPAWN A FEW SHOWERS. HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR DO HINT AT THIS INTO THE DAY AS THIS TROUGH SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH. WITH NO REAL SURFACE FEATURE THIS ACTIVITY IS TIED TO...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDDAY AND ONLY SHOWERS EXPECTED. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH WHERE SOME CLEAR SKIES LOOK TO DEVELOP. THIS MAY POSE AS A BETTER FOG SET UP AND MAY NEED TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. BY SATURDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE BASE OF THE LOW...CROSSING THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BRING A SURGE OF MOIST AIR INTO EAST KENTUCKY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAKING MAKING IT INTO POINTS SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS WITH THIS FEATURE HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT AND THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS THE DESERT SW WILL FINALLY BEGIN PHASING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AS WE MOVE INTO THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...JET ENERGY... AND SHORTWAVE WILL AID IN DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST PWATS BETWEEN 1.2 AND AOA 1.4 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD AS COLUMN SATURATES...THEREFORE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE INTENSITY AT TIMES. GIVEN THE VERY WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WE COULD SEE ISOLATED FLOODING THREAT ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND ALSO ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DOES LOOK TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AS MENTIONED ABOVE AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A TWO PART SYSTEM AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A SPOKE OF ENERGY FROM THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UP TO THIS POINT WE DO SEE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM. PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BREAKDOWN THE PATTERN WITH MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW AND COOLER AIR USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH WITH HIGHS TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TO EVEN LOWER 40S TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MORE DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE EXISTS IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. RIGHT NOW THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE WETTER THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS POINT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT EXISTS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MODEL BLEND. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 809 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING SOME 2 TO 3 KFT CEILINGS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z THIS MORNING. AFTERWARD...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AND SO HAVE PUT IFR VIS IN ALL THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AFTER 06Z. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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