Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 310528 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 128 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1217 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 BLENDED LATEST OBS INTO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...WITH NO CHANGES OF SUBSTANCE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 THE FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK SO JUST TWEAKED THE SKY COVER AND T/TD GRIDS PER THE CURRENT OBS AND TENDS. THE UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS HAS HELPED TO CLEAR THE SKY LOCALLY THIS EVENING EVEN AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD SOUTH FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR STIRRED UP A BIT MORE THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LIMITING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCES. HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THIS PATTERN. ALSO TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS FOR T AND TD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG. HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES. THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES. OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH MULTIPLE TROUGHS...SHORTWAVES...AND RIDGES IMPACTING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. OVERALL...EXPECT RATHER ZONAL FLOW TO BE THE BACKDROP...WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED. TO START OUT THE PERIOD...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AT PLAY. NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRY AIR TO INFILTRATE THE STATE...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SEWRD DURING THE EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW...ALLOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE 70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY. AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT REACHES THE OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DECENT WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN SEVERAL SMALLER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRAVERSE KY /ATTACHED TO ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/...DAYTIME HEATING IS IN PLAY...AND THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NE...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT OF LIFT. A QUICK SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW HOURS...WITH A FAST TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR DIRECTLY BEHIND AS YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO THE REGION. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS LESSON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A CONSIDERABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE LOW 40S AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE N. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY AND PRECIP BY MONDAY AS WELL. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY...WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS DIRECTION WILL START FROM THE SW IN THE MORNING AND TRANSITION TO THE W AND NW BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...HAL

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