Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 012005 CCA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 405 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 40S...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A FEW 30S SHOWING UP. THIS WILL ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE A BIT MILDER CONDITIONS AS SUNSHINE RETURNS IN FULL FORCE...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 AN OVERALL QUIET STRETCH OF TIME IS IN STORE. GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD OCCUR. ALTHOUGH MODELS DO GENERATE A BIT OF LIGHT PRECIP AT TIMES IN A DIURNAL PATTERN WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP. LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK AND MID-UPPER LEVELS REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES...AND HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS SUB-20 PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN AND ENOUGH MOISTURE RECOVERY MAY OCCUR THROUGH AIR MASS MODIFICATION SO THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST KY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 LAST OF THE MVFR CIGS WILL BURN OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS LEAVING BEHIND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. FORECAST LOWS RIGHT NOW ARE RIGHT ABOUT WHERE CURRENT DEW POINTS RESIDE. HOWEVER...IF LOWS END UP COOLER WHICH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...WE COULD SEE MORE FOG THAN CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS. FOR NOW...OPTING TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAFS AS THE GUIDANCE REALLY IS NOT HITTING IT VERY HARD TONIGHT AND LET THE EVENING SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...KAS

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