Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 051332 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 932 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 932 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 QUICK UPDATE TO ALIGN T AND TD GRIDS WITH RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE LACK OF EVIDENCE ON CURRENT OBS OR SATELLITE. IF ANY FOG IS IN THE VALLEYS IT SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN THE NEXT HOUR AS THE SUN CONTINUES TO RISE ANYWAYS. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPERATURES WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL GUIDANCE TO MAKE SURE THEY WERE ON PAR WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS...WITH YET ANOTHER RAPID INCREASE INTO THE 70 DEGREE RANGE EXPECTED BY NOON OR JUST BEFORE. OTHERWISE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK...WITH NO UPDATES TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STAY IN CONTROL THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE SHORT TERM. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL POINTING AT JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISL/SCT AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST MOISTURE LIKELY DIRECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE SE. DESPITE MODELS TRYING TO PUT PRECIP BACK IN ACROSS THIS SAME AREA ON WEDNESDAY...STILL BELIEVE DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL WIN OUT AND SO KEPT POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SRLY FLOW AND GOOD SUN COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LOW TO MID 80S BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW FOR HIGHS...WHILE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LARGE RIDGE VALLEY SPLITS IN TEMPERATURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SIZABLE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES FOR VALLEYS BETWEEN MORNING LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE HOWEVER ON THURSDAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS OUR TERRAIN...SO MAINTAINED SMALL CHANCES FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. THE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP A LID ON MOST CONVECTION BESIDES A ROGUE SHOWER OR STORM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT EAST FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF POPS TO OUR AREA. STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCLUDED MENTION OF SOME DAYTIME CU DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS COMING AFTERNOON AGAIN...FADING OUT BY THE EVENING. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BELOW 5KTS. WHILE AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT TAF SITES TO BE AFFECTED. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JVM SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...JMW

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