Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 040237 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1037 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1037 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 DESPITE SOME VALLEY TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA THAT HAVE SLIGHTLY DROPPED OFF A BIT FASTER THAN FORECASTED...THE OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK. A BIT MORE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT OVERALL...SKY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL STILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. HAVE UPDATED AND OUT A NEW ZFP TO REMOVE ANY EVENING WORDING IN THE FORECAST AND SENT THE FRESHENED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SOME SLOWLY DISSIPATING CU WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST BUT MAINTAINING INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. ISSUED AN UPDATE TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL BE OUR DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW LEVEL PARCEL TRAJECTORIES STILL WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MOISTURE RETURN. MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST TO BRING BACK HIGHER DEW POINTS...LIKELY BECAUSE OF TOO MUCH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION BEING ALLOWED IN THE MODELS. THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A SLOWER MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST. WITH A DRY AIR MASS AND FAVORABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS AT NIGHT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RIDGE/VALLEY DIFFERENCES FOR LOWS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SIZABLE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES...ESPECIALLY FOR VALLEYS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS NOW SEEM LESS CERTAIN WITH THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FACT MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER AGGRESSIVE ON SURFACE MOISTURE...TENDS TO SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. WILL STAY CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE FOR DEW POINTS AS THEY HAVE HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON SURFACE MOISTURE LATELY...ALTHOUGH EVEN TODAY THEY WERE A BIT HIGH. THESE LOWER DEW POINTS TODAY REALLY CONFIRMS IT WILL TAKE AWHILE TO GET MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ANY RAINFALL THIS UPCOMING WEEK. NOT ONLY DO WE HAVE MOISTURE CONCERNS...BUT WE ALSO HAVE SOME WEAK MID LEVEL CAPPING TO ALSO OVERCOME...SO THE PIECES JUST DON`T FIT TOGETHER FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NOT MUCH CHANGING ON THAT FRONT EITHER. LOOK FOR LOWER 80S EACH AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES SETTLING INTO THE MID 50S AT NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 50S EACH NIGHT. THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AT NIGHT THIS WEEK WILL FEATURE VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS ANTICIPATED AS WELL BUT SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE USUAL RIVER VALLEYS AND NOT AFFECT THE TAF SITES. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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