Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 310735 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 335 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH TODAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED...AND ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ANY LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTH AND/OR EAST. STRONG SURFACE HEATING...AND EVENTUALLY COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL ALLOW FOR A WELL MIXED SURFACE LAYER AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH AN EASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP IN WINDS AS HEATING IS LOST THIS EVENING. WILL LOOK FOR A MODEST RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BY DAWN ON WEDNESDAY. SUNSHINE AND STRONG HEATING...AND A CESSATION OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL LEAD TO A DECENT REBOUND IN TEMPS FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 TO START OUT THE PERIOD... A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SEWD DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM...MOIST AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE 70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z FRIDAY. AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DECENT WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN A SERIES OF SURFACE WAVES TRAVERSE KY. DAYTIME HEATING...ALONG WITH THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE SURFACE FRONT WILL ONLY INCREASE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW HOURS...WITH A FAST TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR DIRECTLY BEHIND AS YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO THE REGION. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS LESSON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A CONSIDERABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 30S AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE N. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY AND PRECIP ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY...WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS DIRECTION WILL START FROM THE SW IN THE MORNING AND TRANSITION TO THE W AND NW BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...JVM/JMW AVIATION...HAL

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