Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 011747 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 147 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 ITS TAKEN AWHILE...BUT SKIES ARE NOW CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WHICH WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. UPDATED SKY COVER A BIT TO REFLECT A BIT MORE ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 UPDATED TO REMOVE THE LAST OF THE SPRINKLES AND TO REMOVE ANY MORNING WORDING FROM THE FORECAST. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING TO RISE EARLY TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER...WE SHOULD SEE THEM RECOVER QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SUNSHINE DEVELOPS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 856 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE THE LAST OF THE FOG AS CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA AGAIN THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY THIN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT IT MAY TAKE INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS OR EVEN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THIS HAPPENS. OTHERWISE...JUST WATCHING A FEW SPRINKLES DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITING TO OUR EAST. THESE SHOULD MOVE ON THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH THE AFTERNOON SEEING MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER. UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 THE STRATUS HAS DRIFTED A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED SO HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE. ALSO FINE TUNED THE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE IS DESCENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS IS ADVECTING IN COOLER AIR ON LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE CWA...GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 AND 45 DEGREES WITH THE DEWPOINTS SIMILAR. THANKS TO THE EARLIER SHOWERS...AND SOME ONGOING LIGHT ONES...PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE FORMED OVER THE AREA. ON SATELLITE...CLEAR SKIES ARE FOUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE LOWER CLOUDS EXIST IN THE EAST...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE OPENING CLOSED LOW DEPARTING THE SOUTHEAST ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE...BUT ALSO TRAILING A BAND OF ENERGY THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE HEIGHT RISES PAUSE. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT OVER THE AREA WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WEATHER DETAILS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE... DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA WHILE A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. WITH MARGINAL CAPE AND LIS POTENTIALLY TO -2 THIS AFTERNOON A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT RULE BE RULED OUT...BUT WILL LEAVE THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST IN LIEU OF THE MORE LIKELY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AMIDST PARTIAL CLEARING AT BEST. A WARMER DAY IS ON TAP FOR SATURDAY... AS THE HIGH WEAKENS...HOWEVER...A STRAY SHOWER OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE ENERGY PASSING BY ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SPRINKLES IN THE WX GRIDS FOR THIS WITH RELATIVELY LOW POPS. FOR TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS/WINDS AGAIN HAVE STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST AND THEN THE SUPERBLEND AFTER THAT. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES BASED ON TERRAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT TOO MUCH GIVEN THE HIGH/S POSITION TO THE WEST. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP GENERALLY ABOVE MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE MAV NUMBERS MOST SIMILAR TODAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 BY 0Z SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING EASTERN KY AND BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL ENSUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION AND SOUTHWARD...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN WEAK LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF CANADA. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS EFFECTIVELY BLOCK THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW FROM MOVING EASTWARD...THIS COLD FRONT WILL BECOME ELONGATED IN A NEARLY WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION JUST NORTH OF KY...AND REMAIN STATIONARY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE LOCATED RIGHT ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT...AND STAY WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL MEAN INCREASING TEMPERATURE TRENDS INTO MIDWEEK AS WELL. THAT BEING SAID...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH...COULD BE A GOOD SET UP FOR SOME SCATTERED POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY...AS WAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL. THE GFS SEEMS TO LATCH ONTO THIS IDEA MORE THAN THE ECMWF...BUT EXPECT MODELS TO BEGIN LINING UP BETTER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REGARDLESS...BOTH AGREE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA. BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST...AS WELL AS THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST AS WELL. WHILE THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION...THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY YET AGAIN FOR SOME POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE WARM AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLING IN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY RISE ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK BOTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN DIGGING INTO THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A STRONG PULL IN MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...PULLING DIRECTLY NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...EXPECT OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LIKELY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 LAST OF THE MVFR CIGS WILL BURN OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS LEAVING BEHIND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. FORECAST LOWS RIGHT NOW ARE RIGHT ABOUT WHERE CURRENT DEWPOINTS RESIDE. HOWEVER...IF LOWS END UP COOLER WHICH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...WE COULD SEE MORE FOG THAN CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS. FOR NOW...OPTING TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAFS AS THE GUIDANCE REALLY IS NOT HITTING IT VERY HARD TONIGHT AND LET THE EVENING SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...KAS

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