Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 050521 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 121 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1044 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS PORTION OF EASTERN KY THIS EVENING. THESE ARE STREAMING IN FROM AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG A BOUNDARY ACROSS OH/IN. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY NORTH WELL NORTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT. FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND UPDATED WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KY...WHICH IS LEADING TO DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK TONIGHT WITH UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL BE OUR DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW LEVEL PARCEL TRAJECTORIES STILL WILL NOT ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN. WITH A DRY AIR MASS AND FAVORABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS AT NIGHT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RIDGE/VALLEY DIFFERENCES FOR LOWS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SIZABLE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES...ESPECIALLY FOR VALLEYS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL WORK WEEK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AND MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S. MODEL DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THE FEATURE INLAND...WHICH WOULD HELP WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND PERHAPS ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO KEEP THE LOW OFFSHORE WHICH WOULD HELP KEEP A CAP ON ANY SHOWERS THAT TRY TO FORM UNDER THE RIDGE. SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS ON THURSDAY WHERE THERE IS GOOD MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PRESENT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AN UL TROUGH PUSHES EWD INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCLUDED MENTION OF SOME DAYTIME CU DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS COMING AFTERNOON AGAIN...FADING OUT BY THE EVENING. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BELOW 5KTS. WHILE AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT TAF SITES TO BE AFFECTED.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...JMW

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