Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 160142 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 942 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 941 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015 GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING..WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY. HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN TN...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE SAME AREA. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT NE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...REACHING FAR WESTERN KY BY 12Z TOMORROW. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE CWA LATER IN THE NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. BUT IN THE MEANTIME...IT LOOKS AS THINGS ARE STARTING TO SETTLE DOWN ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED CLOUD COVER...A HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL HELP TO MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. CURRENT READINGS OF UPPER 50S HAVE BEEN INCORPORATED INTO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...WITH ONLY A 3 TO 5 DEGREE DIURNAL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED BY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST TO ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOW/S WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO KENTUCKY. THE LIGHT PCPN AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS HAS KEPT MOST OF THE AREA ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. HOWEVER...THINNING CLOUDS AND A BREAK IN THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT TEMP RISES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST. READINGS CURRENTLY VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTH WHILE DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM NEAR 60 SOUTH TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR NORTH. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHILE THEY ARE A BIT LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE TO THE SOUTH. THE LIFTING WARM FRONT MAY REINITIATE SHOWERS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING... PER THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12...BUT RIGHT NOW THE RADAR SCOPE IS PRETTY CLEAN. SHOULD CONVECTION REDEVELOP...SOME THUNDER MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE RISING TEMPS/INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS A FEW CLUSTERS OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL BRUSH KENTUCKY AS THEY MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT ON THE NORTHWEST FRINGE OF A BUILDING RIDGE. THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT ON THURSDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY THAT AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TO THE WEST...A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW SPINS ESSENTIALLY IN PLACE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE COUNTRY...SERVING AS A SOURCE REGION FOR ENERGY ABLE TO ESCAPE AND DRIFT EAST IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM THAT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE KENTUCKY/S WX. GIVEN THE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS DUE TO THEIR HIGHER RESOLUTION... THOUGH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS ARE ALSO OF HIGH RELEVANCE INTO THE NEAR TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING AS THE SFC FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WITH A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...AS WELL. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE SFC LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST APPROACHING. THIS WILL LIKELY LIFT ANOTHER BOUNDARY THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY WITH SHOWERS AND STRAY STORMS A GOOD BET. THE PCPN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT CANNOT GO DRY ATTM GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT. THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO SPECIFIC DETAILS BUT IN GENERAL YOU CAB BANK ON RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUING. USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 18-24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND. GIVEN THE HUMID CONDITIONS MADE ONLY MINOR TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE LOW SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT IN LINE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015 THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SOME SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. AFTER A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...PROVIDING A ROUND OF RAINFALL TO THE REGION...PUSHES THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING... FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSHES EWD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...THE CLOSED LOW EJECTS EWD AS WELL. THE ENERGY FROM THE CLOSED LOW THEN FEEDS INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND HELPS DEEPEN/INTENSIFY IT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THIS RAINFALL HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF BREAKING THE JKL/S ALL-TIME APRIL RAINFALL RECORD...CURRENTLY WE HAVE HAD THE SECOND WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD. IN FACT...THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PRECIP FROM THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY. CLOSER TO HOME...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET...COOLER...AND DRY AS THE UPPER LEVELS TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ACTUALLY HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS MAJOR SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A STRONG SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES REACHING 1.50 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT. THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LIKELY THUNDER DURING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. PROBABLY COULD HAVE UPPED POPS TO GO CATEGORICAL ON SUNDAY/MONDAY MORNING BUT HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH NEIGHBORS FOR NOW AND KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE GRIDS. ALL IN ALL...BASED ON THE CONTINUED WET PATTERN...THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL AND WHERE RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE STILL RUNNING HIGH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 757 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015 A BIT OF AN UNSETTLED TAF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING...BUT ARE SHOWING A DISSIPATING TREND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SLOWLY SHIFTS TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION FOR TONIGHT. THIS DRIER DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL DO ONE OF TWO THINGS. IT WILL EITHER HELP TO SCOUR OUT THE LOWER CIGS...OR IT COULD LEAD TO A STRONG INVERSION WHICH TRAPS SOME OF THE MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF A LOW STRATUS DECK AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES. AS SUCH... CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHICH WILL OCCUR...WITH SOME SITES LIKELY FLUCTUATING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CIGS. EITHER WAY...EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER...VCSH WILL LIKELY STILL POSE A THREAT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH CIGS FLUCTUATING ONCE MORE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...THOUGH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...JMW

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