Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 041945 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 345 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL WORK WEEK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AND MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S. MODEL DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THE FEATURE INLAND...WHICH WOULD HELP WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND PERHAPS ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO KEEP THE LOW OFFSHORE WHICH WOULD HELP KEEP A CAP ON ANY SHOWERS THAT TRY TO FORM UNDER THE RIDGE. SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS ON THURSDAY WHERE THERE IS GOOD MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PRESENT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AN UL TROUGH PUSHES EWD INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING IFR. HOWEVER...NO TAF SITES SHOULD BE AFFECTED. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND AT MID DAY TUESDAY...AND NEAR CALM TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...HAL

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