Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 020018 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 818 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 818 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. IT APPEARS LATER TONIGHT WE WILL BE CLEAR FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO DROP...DRASTICALLY IN SOME LOCATIONS...SUCH AS THE FAR EASTERN DEEPER VALLEYS...AND PERHAPS AS WELL SOME OF THE VALLEYS IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE INTERESTING SITUATION HERE THOUGH IS THAT DESPITE THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...SOME UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS IS APPEARING TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. CURRENT HI RES MODEL RUNS SUGGEST CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND PLUNGING TEMPS WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AND AS SUCH HAVE DROPPED THE DEEPER VALLEY TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND KEPT THE PATCHY FOG IN ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT...THINKING COVERAGE AND RESIDENCE TIME WILL NOT SUGGEST ANY HEADLINE IS NEEDED TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 40S...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A FEW 30S SHOWING UP. THIS WILL ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE A BIT MILDER CONDITIONS AS SUNSHINE RETURNS IN FULL FORCE...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 AN OVERALL QUIET STRETCH OF TIME IS IN STORE. GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD OCCUR. ALTHOUGH MODELS DO GENERATE A BIT OF LIGHT PRECIP AT TIMES IN A DIURNAL PATTERN WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP. LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK AND MID-UPPER LEVELS REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES...AND HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS SUB-20 PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN AND ENOUGH MOISTURE RECOVERY MAY OCCUR THROUGH AIR MASS MODIFICATION SO THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST KY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 818 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BE OR BECOMING CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE PUT THIS IN THE TAF SITES. EXPECTING TO SEE SME AND LOZ GET SOCKED IN THE MOST...THOUGH LOZ SHOULD BE THE ONLY LOCATION THAT REACHED FIELD MINS. ALL FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z WITH A 6 KFT SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER DEVELOPING BY NOON AT MOST LOCATIONS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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