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000
FXUS66 KLOX 100553
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
950 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2010

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXIT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OFFSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR FAIR SKIES AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.UPDATE...THE STORMS CENTER CURRENTLY REMAINS SKIMMING OVER THE
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING. RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL
AND ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS FOR A WRAP-
AROUND EVENT DEVELOPING FOR THE INTERIOR SLOPE AND DESERT LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE UP TO ABOUT 7000
FEET. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE FREEZING APPROACHING 4000
FEET LATER TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...A
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE BURSTS OF SNOW EXISTS FOR THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ADDED FOR THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY AND THE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CONTINUED FOR THE LOS ANGELES
AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS. THE ADVISORIES FOR THE SAN LUIS
OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY...AS THEY ARE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. WITH WRAP-AROUND
POTENTIAL IN PLACE AND COOL AIR MASS ALREADY TAKING SHAPE...SNOW
SHOWERS COULD STILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. AN UPDATE
WAS INCLUDED EARLIER TO DECREASE TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR
PORTION LATE TONIGHT...IN ADDITION TO UPDATING THE HEADLINES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...ON WEDNESDAY LOW LVL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED
BUT POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME NORTH FACING SLOPE AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING EARLY WED MORNING
WITH A DRY BUT COOL DAY EXPECTED.

DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS MODELS INDICATE THE LATE
WEEK SYSTEM WILL PRETTY MUCH BE A NON-ISSUE NOW. MAYBE JUST SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR AREAS NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE WARMING UP TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY
FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...DRY PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW AND 950 TEMPS AROUND 20C. THIS TYPICALLY
PRODUCES HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AT LEAST ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION AND NEAR 70 IN THE NORTH. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AREAS NEAR 80 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

10/0600Z

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MOST TAFS. CST AND VLY TAFS FROM KSBA SOUTH TO
KLGB WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR SHOWERS. THERE IS A CHC
OF TSTMS OVER THE WATER BUT ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF A TSTM AT A
TAF SITE. THE DESERT SITES WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER SUNRISE.

KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 12Z THEN GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE NO MVFR CIGS AND A
10 PERCENT CHC OF A TSTM TIL 12Z.

KBUR...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 12Z THEN GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AND A 10 PERCENT CHC OF A
TSTM TIL 12Z.

..NOTE...
THE ASOS EQUIPMENT AT KBUR...KVNY...KHHR...KCMA...AND KOXR HAS A
SOFTWARE ERROR THAT MAY LEAD TO INCORRECT CLOUD HEIGHTS WHEN THERE
ARE TWO OR MORE CLOUD LAYERS PRESENT. OBSERVATIONS AT KBUR WILL BE
QUALITY CONTROLLED 24 HOURS A DAY...OBSERVATIONS AT KVNY WILL BE
QUALITY CONTROLLED FROM 13Z-07Z...OBSERVATIONS AT KOXR WILL BE
QUALITY CONTROLLED FROM 15Z-05Z. TAFS FOR KVNY AND KOXR WILL NOT BE
AMENDED FOR CIGS DURING THE TIME THE OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT MONITORED
AND THERE ARE TWO OR MORE CLOUD LAYERS PRESENT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SETO/HALL
PUBLIC...HALL/WOFFORD
AVIATION...ASR

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