Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 250145 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
845 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY DROPPED OFF THIS EVENING AND ARE NOW BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THUS...WE HAVE CANCELLED
THE WIND ADVISORY A LITTLE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. OVERALL GRIDS HAVE
EVERYTHING WELL IN HAND AND NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS WILL
DROP OFF NOTABLY AROUND SUNSET...THOUGH THEY WILL CONTINUE AT
10-15 KNOTS MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
PERSISTS. WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT THAT WE SAW TODAY. ANY BLOWING
DUST CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS WILL SETTLE OUT AS THE
WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE
THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
DRY SLOT MADE SWIFT PROGRESS ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THAT AS OF
330 PM HAD LARGELY EXITED OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. ON A RELATED
NOTE...THE DRYLINE WAS ACCELERATING EAST INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS
AHEAD OF STRONG SW WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING
60 MPH PER WTM OBS. WIND ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT INTACT UNTIL 02Z AS
THE MAX MID-LEVEL WIND CORE /75 KNOTS AT 500MB/ TRANSLATES
THROUGH BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING SQUASHES DEEP MOMENTUM
TRANSFER. RESPECTABLE GRADIENT FLOW OVERNIGHT SW OF A SURFACE LOW
EXITING THE PANHANDLES SHOULD KEEP WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH...
SO LOW TEMPS EVEN IN THIS DRIER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BE HELD UP A
BIT ACROSS THE BOARD.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE A RELAXING WESTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT UNDER
SHALLOW RIDGING...THOUGH DEEP MIXING ONCE AGAIN IN THIS DRY
AIRMASS WILL ONCE AGAIN FOSTER DEEP MIXING INTO A BELT OF STRONGER
WESTERLIES ALOFT. END RESULT SHOULD BE A MORE TYPICAL BREEZY DAY
BY WEST TX STANDARDS WITH AOA NORMAL MAX TEMPS.

LONG TERM...
VALID BEYOND 00Z/SUN.  SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXIT THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEXT TROUGH DEEPENS AND CUTS-OFF INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. IN SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL STYLE...THE CUT
OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL UP NEARLY STATIONARY AND SIT ABOVE
WEST TEXAS BEFORE EJECTING ON TUESDAY. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING THEN
BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

TURNING TO SENSIBLE WX...WESTERLY SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH
SATURDAY EVENING WITH DIRECTION BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY INTO
SUNDAY.  AS UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES...UL FLOW WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT.  MOST DATA SUGGEST DRYLINE WILL BE EAST OF
THE CWFA THOUGH MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME HANDLING THE DRYLINE
THIS SPRING.  THE REASON IS FAIRLY SIMPLE...WE HAVE A LOT MORE
GROUND MOISTURE THIS SPRING AND IT RESULTINGLY MAKES IT HARDER FOR
THE MOISTURE TO MIX OUT AS EFFECTIVELY. TAKING THIS INTO
ACCOUNT...WOULD BE INCLINED TO THINK THAT THE STORM CHANCES SHOULD
BE PULLED BACK FURTHER WEST INTO OUR AREA SIMILAR TO WHAT THE ECMWF
12Z RUN APPEARS TO BE SUGGESTING.  INTO MONDAY...PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO CONTINUE AT LEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS THE LOW CONTINUES
TO TRACK CLOSER.  BY MONDAY EVENING...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE IN OR
THROUGH OUR AREA WITH ADDITIONAL POST-FRONTAL PRECIP INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER BUT QUITE
PLEASANT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        46  79  50  75 /  10   0   0  20
TULIA         49  81  51  78 /   0   0   0  20
PLAINVIEW     50  81  51  79 /   0   0   0  20
LEVELLAND     50  81  52  79 /   0   0   0  20
LUBBOCK       52  82  53  81 /   0   0   0  20
DENVER CITY   49  80  53  77 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    51  81  53  80 /   0   0   0  20
CHILDRESS     56  88  56  86 /   0   0   0  20
SPUR          55  83  55  85 /   0   0   0  20
ASPERMONT     56  86  57  88 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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