Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 011726
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1226 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. SLIGHTLY
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AT KLBB AND KPVW...WILL DECLINE TO AT OR
AROUND 10 KTS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY ONCE AGAIN BY
SATURDAY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SCT-BKN VFR DECKS
WILL PASS OVERHEAD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MAY WILL KICK OFF ON THE WARM AND QUIET SIDE AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING
HOLDS SWAY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS TODAY. A DECENT PLUME OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DIRECTED EASTWARD...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING...THOUGH SOME MID-LEVEL DEBRIS COULD BEND OVER THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE BREEZY
THIS AFTERNOON AS A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND FULL INSOLATION WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SEASONABLY MILD DAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

LONG TERM...
.IT LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL BE ENTERING A PERIOD OF
ACTIVE WEATHER BEGINNING ON SUNDAY...

ON SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND WEST TX SHOULD KICK OFF SOME T-STORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NEW MEXICO HIGHLANDS. RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LVL
FLOW AND SHALLOW MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THIS ACTIVITY FROM MAKING IT
PAST THE STATE LINE SATURDAY EVENING...BUT WE/LL HAVE TO WATCH THE
FAR SW TX PANHANDLE. SATURDAY/S HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 80S.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST WITH TROUGHING STRETCHING
FROM BAJA INTO WEST TEXAS. QUITE A BIT OF MID-LVL MOISTURE WILL BE
ENTRAINED BY THE SW FLOW WITHIN THE TROUGH AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS
NM AND WTX. STRENGTHENING S-SERLY LOW-LVL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
ALSO BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO WTX WITH A DRYLINE
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TX AND NM STATE LINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOST
GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST A MODEST QPF SIGNAL IN VICINITY OF THE
DRYLINE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK.
MOISTURE AND SHEAR MAY BE A BIT LIMITED ON SUNDAY FOR MORE THAN A
MARGINAL/ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO FOLLOW.

BY MONDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT
SW...BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF DIFFLUENCE AND ASCENT DOWNSTREAM
OVER WEST TEXAS. THE DRYLINE SHOULD RETREAT INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE
WILL LIKELY BE LACKING A SURFACE FOCUS WITH THE DRYLINE REMAINING
TO OUR WEST...BUT THE AMOUNT AND MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED T-STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER A WIDE AREA.
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE PROJECTED
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
MAY NOT BE AN OPTIMAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. THE
CONTINUATION OF T-STORM ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY DEPEND
ON THE TIMING OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE APPROACHING
WAVE...BUT THERE IS A DECENT PROBABILITY OF SOME T-STORMS BEING
MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A NOCTURNAL MCS WHICH
COULD BRING A HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT NEWD ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER
CONTINUED STRONG LIFT AND KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. IF THERE IS ONGOING ACTIVITY
TUESDAY MORNING THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
RECOVERING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY....TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE
TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 70S WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED...WE/LL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW IT EVOLVES.

DRIER SWERLY FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE
CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. THE
DRYLINE MAY HANG UP ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THOUGH AND SUPPORT
MORE T-STORMS CHANCES FOR THAT AREA. ADDITIONALLY...THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY NOT GO VERY FAR AS THE LOW-LVL WINDS TURN BACK TO THE
S-SE IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM DEVELOPING BACK ACROSS
THE WRN STATES. THIS COULD RENEW PRECIP CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS EARLY ON THURSDAY DEPENDING ON JUST HOW THE
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OUT WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  85  52  86 /   0   0  10  30
TULIA         51  84  54  85 /   0   0  10  20
PLAINVIEW     51  84  54  85 /   0   0  10  20
LEVELLAND     53  85  55  86 /   0   0   0  20
LUBBOCK       54  85  55  86 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   52  85  54  87 /   0   0   0  20
BROWNFIELD    53  86  55  86 /   0   0   0  20
CHILDRESS     55  85  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          54  84  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     55  85  56  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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