Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 240306 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1006 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
A MINOR UPDATE WAS COMPLETED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE
DEWPOINTS/RHS FROM ROUGHLY THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS EASTWARD. THIS
AS LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE ADVECTED IN THE COOLER
AIR FROM OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE CLOUDS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING VERY MUCH DURING THE DAY TODAY. IN ADDITION...WE DID
INTRODUCE THE MENTION OF FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH WE
HAVE NOT SEEN ANY REDUCED VISIBILITIES YET LOCALLY...FOG IS
LOOMING IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH T/TD SPREADS NARROWING TO A
FEW DEGREES OR LESS WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE POCKETS OF
FOG /PERHAPS LOCALLY DENSE/ FORM. THAT SAID...THE MOIST AIR WILL
GRADUALLY BE SCOURED OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INVADE THE AREA
IN ADVANCE OF A WINDY FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...ALTHOUGH THE ONE BRIEF
ROBUST STORM IN LYNN/GARZA COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING QUICKLY FADED
LONG AGO...THERE REMAINS THE RISK OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...AS
SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EMERGES OVER THE REGION. THUS...WE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE 15-25 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. THE
UPDATE FORECAST GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE REMAINED ENTRENCHED AT KCDS TODAY AND THEY WILL
LIKELY HOLD THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS THERE. CURRENT IFR CONDITIONS COULD EVEN DIP TO LIFR FOR
A TIME...BUT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
09Z AS DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP. KPVW...AND TO A LESSER
EXTEND KLBB...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE
THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AND DRIER
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT ENDING ANY LOW CLOUD/FOG RISK. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25-30 KNOTS COMMON. THE
STRONG WINDS WILL LOFT SOME BLDU AND COULD DROP VISIBILITIES INTO
MVFR TERRITORY FOR AWHILE...AND WE HAVE CARRIED THIS AT KLBB
WHERE CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS HIGHEST. OTHERWISE...ONE
LONE THUNDERSTORM ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KLBB AS OF
2355Z...SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF KLBB BEFORE DIMINISHING.
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS AND NO MENTION HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH THE MORNING...AND A FAIRLY
DENSE LAYER OF CIRRUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HAS SUPPRESSED HEATING
TODAY...SOME WEST TEXAS STATIONS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS STILL HAVEN/T
REACHED 60 DEGREES AS OF 230 PM. IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT THE
DRYLINE HAS NOT FORMED UP ACROSS THE CAPROCK AS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME DRYING OCCUR ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE
HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM...AND WE MAY YET REALIZE SOME MODEST SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY ALONG AN AXIS RUNNING NWWD FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY
INTO THE SRN SPLNS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLD T-STORM OR TWO
COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE THETA-E GRADIENT LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT LAST LONG
BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SRN CALI/NRN
BAJA...WITH A STRONG UPPER JET COMING OUT OF THE ERN PACIFIC ACROSS
NRN MX INTO WEST TEXAS...PROVIDING THE MOISTURE FOR OUR CIRRUS
PLUME. THE TROUGH WILL START TO ACCELERATE TO THE EAST THEN
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SPREAD OVER THE CWA. SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS
AND T-STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SW TX AND MOVE
RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THIS MAY MOVE ACROSS OUR
SRN ZONES...IN FACT RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SUGGESTED THIS ACTIVITY
MAY TEND TO SPREAD A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
FOCUS SHOULD STILL BE INTO THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS DESPITE AMPLE SHEAR...LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD BE MODEST.

THE WEAKENING WAVE WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY.
THIS TRACK WILL BRING A STRONG MID-LVL SPEED MAX OVER WEST TEXAS AND
LEAD TO A WINDY DAY. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP EARLY IN THE DAY AND
INCREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BECOMING SUSTAINED AROUND 25 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH. THIS SHOULD BE ADEQUATE TO LOFT
SOME BLOWING DUST...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME AREAS /LIKE THE SW SPLNS/
RECEIVING RECENT HEAVY RAIN WE ARE NOT QUITE SURE JUST HOW THICK THE
DUST WILL GET. THE TROUGH WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH SO THAT WE WILL SEE
SOME MID-LVL COLD ADVECTION...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM
JUMPING UP IN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW DESPITE DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER.
FRIDAY/S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE
NORTHWEST TO MID 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM...
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE ON A DECLINE FRIDAY EVENING FOLLOWING THE
DEPARTURE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OUT OF THE PANHANDLES. FLAT RIDGING
ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH DEEP AND DRY W-SW FLOW SPELLS A BOUT OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE WINDS
BACK AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS CYCLONE ENTERING THE FOUR CORNERS. GFS
REMAINS ON A FASTER PACE WITH THIS LOW COMPARED TO THE ECM...DGEX
AND CMC AND CONSEQUENTLY LOCKS GULF MOISTURE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. SINCE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS CYCLONE IN
RECENT DAYS...FEEL THE NON-GFS CAMP HAS MORE MERIT FOR NOW. DID
INSERT LOW TSTORM CHANCES OVER THE EAST ON SUN AFTN NEAR AN
EMERGING DRYLINE BEFORE POPS RATCHET UP ON MONDAY AS THE CYCLONE
JOGS EAST ACROSS THE NRN PERMIAN BASIN OR SRN S PLAINS. IMPRESSIVE
COUPLED ASCENT VIA A TROWAL...DEFORMATION ZONE AND COLD FRONT
SPELL GOOD RAIN CHANCES PROVIDED THE CYCLONE/S TRACK VERIFIES...SO
CANNOT FIND MUCH FAULT WITH THE SUPERBLEND/S 40-60 POPS THIS MANY
PERIODS OUT. MAX TEMPS ON MON WERE LOWERED CONSIDERABLY AS DENSE
CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD SERIOUSLY STUNT THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE.
MONDAY/S COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY ERODE DEEP MOISTURE POOLING IN
THE GULF...SO ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES AFTER MON NIGHT-TUE LOOK
HARD TO COME BY ESPECIALLY IF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH COMES TO FRUITION
JUST UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL AREA.

FIRE WEATHER...
DEEP AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. A SURFACE DRYLINE WILL QUICKLY RACE OFF
THE CAPROCK AND LIKELY GO EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...PLACING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS FOR A TIME. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY...LIKELY BECOMING SUSTAINED AROUND 20-25 MPH AT THE 20-FOOT
LEVEL. THE LOW RH/S AND WINDS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN THE FIRE
DANGER. MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT RAINFALL AND GREEN-UP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS. THESE TWO FACTORS SUGGEST THAT A CRITICAL DANGER WILL NOT BE
ATTAINED AND WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. ONE
AREA OF POSSIBLE CONCERN IS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE. FUELS ACROSS THIS AREA MAY BE MORE RECEPTIVE DUE TO A
RELATIVE LACK OF RAINFALL AND GREEN-UP...BUT THIS IS ALSO THE AREA
WHERE TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN CLIMO...SO THE DEGREE OF
WILDFIRE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        48  77  46  78 /  10   0   0   0
TULIA         51  79  50  81 /  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     52  79  50  81 /  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     53  80  51  80 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       56  81  53  82 /  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   53  79  49  80 /  20   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    55  80  52  81 /  20   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     59  85  56  87 /  20  10   0   0
SPUR          58  83  55  84 /  20  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     62  85  58  88 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07



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