Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 022006
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
306 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
FLATTENING UA RIDGING PASSING OVERHEAD TODAY HAS STREAMED IN SCT-BKN
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DESPITE
THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS STILL MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S
ACROSS THE CWA PER 20Z METARS...COURTESY OF SFC LEE TROUGHING
PROMOTING A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS BREEZY S-
SW/DOWNSLOPE SFC WINDS /15-25 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS/. WEAK
EMBEDDED PULSES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UA RIDGE...ALONG WITH
TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS HAVE LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ONCE AGAIN
FIRING UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF ERN NM. 15-20 KTS OF W-
SW MEAN FLOW COULD PERHAPS ENCOURAGE A FEW LINGERING STORMS TO
NEAR/MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NRN AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER SUGGESTS A VERY LIGHT SHOWER/VIRGA SHOWERS AND/OR A BRIEF WIND
GUST BEING THE RULE. IF NONE OF THOSE INSTANCES TAKE PLACE...CLOUD
DEBRIS FILTERING ACROSS THE NRN ZONES WILL BE PLAUSIBLE. SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX A BIT...BUT IT WILL
NOT BE NON-EXISTENT AS INDICTED BY MOS GUIDANCE WIND SPEEDS HOLDING
AOA 10-15 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TOWARDS AN UA PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
THAT WILL BE NEARING SRN CALI/NRN BAJA BY THE AFTN. UA RIDGING WILL
BE SLIDING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL. AS SUCH...SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN WHILST
SHIFTING EWRD TO ACROSS THE WRN PANHANDLES WRN SOUTH
PLAINS...THEREBY DRAGGING A DRYLINE ONTO THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS BY
LATE AFTN. SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE APPEAR TO BE
ADEQUATE...GIVEN MODEL SOLUTIONS HINTING AT CI ACROSS THE TX/NM
BORDER AND THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE SAID TIME. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HIGH-BASED...THOUGH BETTER MOISTENING IS NOTED IN
THE MID LEVELS PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. CIN IS QUITE NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS
THE TX/NM BORDER BY LATE AFTN...WITH CIN INCREASING EWRD. ALTHOUGH
STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE HIGH-BASED...MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000
J/KG /AND WEAK SHEAR/ WILL EXIST WHICH MAY LEAD TO STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL. MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE STORMS TO
WANE AS IT SHIFTS EAST GIVEN GREATER CIN THERE...THUS LOCALES ON THE
CAPROCK ARE MOST PREFERRED FOR BEST POPS. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN ZONES/ AND SLIGHT HEIGHT
FALLS...TEMPS WILL STILL WARM TO ABOVE NORM ON SUNDAY /MIDDLE
80S/. /29


.LONG TERM...
UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE BY JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST TUESDAY PRECEDED
BY INITIAL DISTURBANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH MOISTURE
DEEPENING. INITIAL DISTURBANCES SHOULD FAVOR WESTERN ZONES WITH
BEST CHANCES AND RAINFALL TOTALS...THOUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA IT SHOULD SPREAD HIGH
PROBABILITIES AREA-WIDE WITH BETTER TOTALS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
AS WELL.

UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD UNWIND A BIT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
STILL WILL LAY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. AND BEFORE WE HAVE TIME TO
TAKE MUCH OF A BREAK YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. DETAILS IN THE THURSDAY AND BEYOND PERIODS WILL
HAVE TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL RUNS...BUT WE WILL RETAIN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND LATEST SUPERBLEND TRENDS TO RETAIN CHANCES FAVORING
THE EASTERN HALF OR TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA.

STILL NOT MUCH CLARITY REGARDING SEVERE THREAT. THE PATTERN EARLY
IN THE WEEK ANALOGS TO A WELL-KNOWN THREAT...BUT OTHER INGREDIENTS
STILL HAVE TO COME TOGETHER. SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AHEAD
WHILE MOISTURE MAY BE TOO ABUNDANT AT TIMES...BELIEVE IT OR NOT...
TO DEVELOP DISCRETE CELLS. WE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN
THREAT CENTERED TUESDAY FOR NOW./05 RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  86  53  74 /  10  30  20  50
TULIA         53  84  57  76 /  10  10  30  40
PLAINVIEW     54  83  56  75 /  10  10  30  40
LEVELLAND     54  86  55  76 /  10  20  30  50
LUBBOCK       56  86  59  76 /  10  10  20  40
DENVER CITY   54  87  55  77 /   0  20  20  50
BROWNFIELD    55  86  58  77 /   0  20  20  40
CHILDRESS     57  86  61  79 /  10   0  10  20
SPUR          56  84  59  77 /   0   0  10  20
ASPERMONT     58  84  60  78 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/05



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