Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 151738
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1238 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.AVIATION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE FOUR-
CORNERS AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY BY LATE THURSDAY. WEAK
DYNAMIC LIFT WILL INCREASE WEST OF KLBB AND KPVW LATE TODAY AND
MAY ALLOW A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...
MOST LIKELY REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF KLBB BUT COULD ENCROACH UPON
KLBB MAINLY AFTER 08Z TONIGHT. THERE ALSO IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
ISOLATED DRY-LINE THUNDERSTORMS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF KCDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH ALSO PRECLUDES MENTION IN THIS TAF. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AND COULD LEAD TO MINOR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS MAINLY KCDS BUT DOES NOT LOOK ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME. EARLY MORNING THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD WANE LATE
THURSDAY MORNING PRIOR TO A LARGER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING TAF SITES LATER THURSDAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

AVIATION...
KCDS IS CURRENTLY IFR WITH VISIBILITIES FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/2MI
AND 1MI THE PAST FEW HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FOG LIFTING BY
14Z AS TEMPS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND MORNING INVERSION ERODES. KPVW
AND KLBB REMAINED VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN
SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10KT- 15KT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT THE TERMINALS...STRONGER
UP TO 20KTS SUSTAINED TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION AT THIS
POINT DECIDED TO LEAVE THEM OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

SHORT TERM...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING
FOUR CORNERS AS ADVERTISED. HEIGHT FALLS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WEDNESDAY EVENTUALLY REACHING OUR NORTHWEST ZONES BY MID-
AFTERNOON...WITH AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF SW KS THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE WE MAY SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
DEVELOP AND WOULD EXPECT MORE IF NOT FOR SCANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RESULTING IN DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30F-40F. OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
DID NOT RECEIVE THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALLS THAT OTHER PARTS OF OUR
CWA DID OVER THE PAST WEEK. GIVEN DRY FUELS AND RH VALUES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS THIS AFTERNOON AND POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION RESULTING IN LIGHTNING STRIKES A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR LATER TODAY ACROSS THESE AREAS.

MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE
CWA...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN INCREASED SURFACE DEWPOINTS
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION UNDERNEATH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING
ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS. DO BELIEVE BEST CHANCES REMAIN
TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES GIVEN THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE
BOTH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND BEST SURFACE FORCING.

LONG TERM...
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL STILL LOOKS GOOD TOMORROW THRU SUNDAY
MORNING...AS THE UA TROUGH NW OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING IS STILL PROGGED TO IMPINGE ON THE SRN PLAINS LATER THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RECENT GFS MODEL RUN LOOKS TO BE A BIT
MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER SOLUTIONS /NAM...ECMWF AND DGEX/ WRT TO THE
EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UA TROUGH. IT IS PROGGED TO PINCH
OFF FROM THE PARENT LOW TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA ON
THURSDAY...WHILST DIGGING SSE TO ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION AND
SETS ITS SIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK-
WEEKEND. WITH THE UA LOW BECOMING MORE CONCENTRIC...THAT USUALLY
SUGGESTS A SLOW AND AT TIMES WOBBLY MOVEMENT WHICH A FEW SOLUTIONS
DO EXHIBIT. LONG TERM SOLUTIONS ARE MORE IN SYNCH IN SHOWING THE
DISTURBANCE EXITING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING...COURTESY OF
ANOTHER SRN CANADA/NRN PLAINS DISTURBANCE THAT WILL PUSH IT TO THE
EAST.

AS THE UA LOW APPROACHES THE REGION TOMORROW AND AID IN INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT...THERE WILL ALSO BE MESOSCALE FEATURES AT PLAY
TO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. SRLY SFC WINDS DURING THE MORNING WILL
BACK TO THE SE MORE SO OFF THE CAPROCK BY THE AFTN...THUS FILTERING
IN RICH GULF MOISTURE /PWATS INCREASING TO 0.50-1.00 INCH WITH
HIGHEST VALUES NOTED ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS/. ON THE
CAPROCK...S-SW SFC WINDS WILL BE THE RULE DUE TO A DEEPENING NEARBY
SFC TROUGH...THEREBY PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DRYLINE THAT
WILL SHARPEN ON THE CAPROCK. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE HINTED AT A
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CURRENT RUNS
HOLDS UP THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES DURING THE DAY AND
RETREATS IT BY THE AFTN AS BREEZY SW SFC WINDS BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS ERN NM. THE DRYLINE WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CI...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE /HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS/...DUE TO A VEERING VERTICAL WIND PROFILE COUPLED WITH
STEEPENED LAPSE RATES...MUCAPE VALUES OF 1-2 KJ/KG /WITHIN PROXIMITY
OF THE DRYLINE/...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS AND PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE. FURTHERMORE...RELATIVELY LOW LCL/S /AOA 5000 FT AGL/
WITHIN THE MOIST SIDE OF THE DRYLINE MAY RAISE EYEBROWS FOR ISOLATED
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IF LOW LEVEL ROTATION IS STRONGER
THAN DEPICTED.

DRY SLOTTING IS BEING SHOWN TO COMMENCE ON FRIDAY AS W-SW SFC WINDS
GETS USHERED IN BY THE SWRN FLANK OF THE UA LOW. HOW QUICKLY THE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL INVADE THE REGION DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL
SOLUTION YOU LOOK AT...BUT OVERALL BEST POPS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY AS THE UA LOW
DEPARTS. THEREAFTER...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ENSUE AND SFC WINDS WILL
RETURN TO A SERLY FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONCURRENTLY...AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COULD INSTIGATE
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY. WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE UA LOW NEARS THE REGION AND PROMOTE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND RAINFALL /70S ON THURSDAY DROPPING TO 60S AND 70S
FRIDAY-SUNDAY/. NEAR NORM TEMPS WILL ENDURE INTO EARLY NEXT AS WE
COULD GET ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP.

FIRE WEATHER...
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE RH VALUES ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS COINCIDING WITH PEAK 20FT SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 20KTS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW END FIRE
WX CONDITIONS. OUR NORTHWEST ZONES MISSED OUT ON SOME OF THE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEKEND. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHTNING FROM ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL BE
ISSUING A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  72  42  65 /  40  40  30  20
TULIA         52  71  46  67 /  30  40  40  30
PLAINVIEW     53  72  47  67 /  30  40  50  30
LEVELLAND     53  75  46  69 /  30  40  40  20
LUBBOCK       54  76  48  70 /  30  40  50  30
DENVER CITY   54  74  47  69 /  30  20  30  20
BROWNFIELD    55  76  48  70 /  30  30  40  20
CHILDRESS     56  75  56  72 /  30  60  60  40
SPUR          56  77  53  71 /  30  60  60  30
ASPERMONT     59  78  56  74 /  30  60  60  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05



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