Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 222345
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
645 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF TSRA EARLY IN THE EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF
KPVW...THEN AT KCDS THROUGH LATE EVENING. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF
LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT KCDS WILL SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS...BUT OUR CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER AT KLBB AND
KPVW. WE/VE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPVW BUT
KEPT KLBB VFR FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...
T-STORM ACTIVITY...LIKELY INCLUDING ONE OR TWO SUPERCELLS...SHOULD
GRADUALLY CONGEAL AND GROW UPSCALE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND MOVE THEN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 10 PM OR
SO. WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP
TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SRN
TX PANHANDLE INTO THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT
WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW. WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STILL
TO THE WEST...THE DRYLINE/OUTFLOW WILL RETREAT BACK WEST SOME
OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY STALL OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AS THE
NEXT SPEEDMAX APPROACHES. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE AGAIN
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ON THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EMERGE OVER WEST TEXAS PRETTY EARLY
IN THE DAY...AND THIS WILL HELP THE DRYLINE SURGE EAST INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE DEEP MOIST AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY NOT BUDGE MUCH ACROSS THE EASTERN ROLLING
PLAINS AND FAR SE TX PANHANDLE. T-STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL POSSIBLE IN
THIS AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...BUT ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF
ANY STORMS DEVELOP THEY/LL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BACK TO THE WEST...THE DRY
SOUTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S.

LONG TERM...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE FEW AND LARGELY COSMETIC FOR
THE SAKE OF THE IMPENDING SEVERE EVENT. OF GREATEST NOTE...WINDS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WERE RAMPED UP NOW THAT MORE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ARE ON TRACK WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 25-30 MPH. LACK OF CLOUDS UNDER
DEEP DRY SLOTTING SPELLS A GOOD RECIPE FOR TALL MIXING HEIGHTS...SO
A WINDY AND SOMEWHAT DUSTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS IN ORDER.

OTHERWISE...THE LARGER PICTURE WILL FEATURE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
NOCTURNAL STORMS OFF THE CAPROCK THURSDAY NIGHT AS A RIBBON OF
DEEPER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FEEL THE
DRYLINE WILL END UP FARTHER WEST THAN MODELS INDICATE THU NIGHT
GIVEN AN UPSTREAM TROUGH...SO POPS WERE WERE TUGGED WEST A BIT FROM
EARLIER. AFTER DRY SLOTTING FRIDAY...TRANSIENT RIDGING BEGINS THE
WEEKEND UNTIL A VIGOROUS UPPER CYCLONE MATERIALIZES IN THE FOUR
CORNERS ON SUNDAY. 12Z GFS AND ECM ARE SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR WITH THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP DRY
SLOTTING IN OUR SOUTH WITH A TROWAL AND DEFORMATION SHIELD PRECIP
ACROSS THE NORTH. DID EXTEND POPS IN DURATION FROM SUN NIGHT THRU
MON OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN LIGHT OF THIS COMMON THEME...BUT A
SIMPLE 100 MILE NORTHWARD JOG OF THE CYCLONE WOULD OPEN THE DOOR TO
ANOTHER WINDY AND DUSTY DAY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WERE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A STRONGER PUSH OF
CANADIAN AIR APPEARS LIKELY DOWNSTREAM OF A STOUT LONGWAVE RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        46  80  50  79 /  20  10  10   0
TULIA         50  79  53  81 /  40  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     51  80  54  81 /  50  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     50  81  55  81 /  10   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       52  82  58  83 /  30  10  10   0
DENVER CITY   49  82  56  80 /   0   0  10   0
BROWNFIELD    51  83  58  82 /  10   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     55  75  59  86 /  50  20  20   0
SPUR          56  82  61  84 /  40  10  20   0
ASPERMONT     60  84  64  87 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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