Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 212044
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
344 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STAGNANT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AS MODEST ADVECTION BALANCES MIXING. AT 3 PM...SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED A DEVELOPING CUMULUS FIELD IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO
WHERE THE DEWPOINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 30S. MORE EXTENSIVE
DEVELOPMENT WAS ONGOING ACROSS THE SACRAMENTOS AND SANGRES OF NM.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH IT IS ABOUT THE ONLY MODEL TO
DO SO. FCST SOUNDINGS IN THESE AREAS INDICATE ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE HIGH-BASED HAVE LITTLE CAPE TO WORK WITH...SO THEY
WILL ONLY BE CAPABLE OF SPOTTY RAIN AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. IF ANY
STORMS CAN SURVIVE FARTHER TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AND ENCOUNTER
THE DEEPER MOISTURE...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A HAIL
THREAT COULD DEVELOP...BUT THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING RICHER MOISTURE NWWD INTO
WEST TEXAS...WITH THE SURFACE DRYLINE RETREATING THROUGH MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE CWA...PERHAPS HOLDING BACK ACROSS THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE. NAM FCST SNDGS SHOW FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS BY EARLY WED MORNING SO WE HAVE ADDED A PATCHY
MENTION IN THE GRIDS....SOME AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL. MEANWHILE TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...THEY WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME OVERNIGHT TSTM ACTIVITY COINCIDING WITH A SWD-MOVING
COLD FRONT. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHAT IMPACT STORM COLD POOLS MAY HAVE ON
THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...WHICH TENDS TO LOWER OUR CONFIDENCE ON
HOW THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BEHAVE ON WEDNESDAY. IN
GENERAL...WE EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE FAR SRN
PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. BACK TO THE
WEST...THE DRYLINE SHOULD FORM UP AND MOVE EAST AS A SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS FROM EASTERN NM INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE
TO STRESS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PARTICULARS...A TRIPLE-POINT
MAY DEVELOP SOMEWHERE FROM OUR CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. BACKED
FLOW AND HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST OUR
NE ZONES. WITH A MID-LVL SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY...STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP SHEAR IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIPLE-POINT. GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SHOWS A STRONG CONVECTIVE SIGNAL IN THIS AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WITH A LOT OF SPREAD RECORDING THE AREA
POTENTIALLY IMPACTED. WHERE STORMS OCCUR...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A
STRONG POSSIBILITY...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES
DEPENDING THE ORIENTATION/EVOLUTION ON THE BOUNDARY/S/. FARTHER
WEST...WE HAVE TRIMMED POPS DOWN OUR NEAR THE STATE LINE BUT LEFT A
SLIGHT CHANCE GOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS IN CASE THE
DRYLINE IS FARTHER WEST THAN ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...
THE PATTERN THEME THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS THAT OF A
PROGRESSIVE ONE AS A SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS IMPACT THE
REGION. ONLY UNTIL THEREAFTER DOES THE PATTERN SHOW SIGNS OF
TRENDING MORE STAGNANT IN THE FORM OF MID-CONUS LONGWAVE RIDGING.

ALL DAYS CONSIDERED...WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOKS TO GRAB THE LIMELIGHT
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER AS A SEVERE CONVECTIVE EPISODE SHOULD BE WELL
UNDERWAY. LOCATION OF THIS EVENT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON A
STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BISECT OUR CWA FROM NW-SE BY
LATE EVENING...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR OUR NERN COUNTIES.
BACKGROUND FORCING APPEARS RATHER SUBDUED AND LINKED MOSTLY TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRESTING SHALLOW RIDGING ALOFT AND A NORTHWARD PUSH
OF STRONGER SUBTROPICAL WINDS. THIS ALONG WITH FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR
MAY SERVE TO KEEP CONVECTIVE MODES RESTRICTED TO ISOLATED OR
SCATTERED SUPERCELLS. FEEL 40-50 PERCENT POPS WED EVENING ARE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THIS SCENARIO FOR NOW BEFORE PRECIP EVENTUALLY
MOVES DOWNSTREAM LATE WED NIGHT.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE WAVERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT IN ADVANCE OF A MORE ROBUST TROUGH LIFTING OUT
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WAVE WILL PROJECT EVEN STRONGER WINDS
ATOP THE REGION PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY OCCASIONAL IMPULSES AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE LL MOISTURE
WILL HAVE A GREATER RESIDENCE TIME. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR DRY
SLOTTING TO SURGE ATOP THE CAPROCK COUNTIES BY EARLY FRIDAY AND
QUICKLY SWEEP EAST AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LIFTS TO OUR NORTH.
THE TIMING AND PATH OF THIS TROUGH SUGGEST A WINDY DAY IS IN STORE
YET WE REMAIN A BIT RELUCTANT TO BITE ON THE STRONG WINDS AS
PROGGED BY THE GFS AT TIMES. TIME-HEIGHT X-SECTIONS SHOW NEXT TO
NIL CIRRUS...SO WE MAY NEED TO RATCHET UP OUR 20-30 MPH WINDS
EVEN FURTHER IN LATER FORECASTS IF THIS THEME PERSISTS.

BY SATURDAY...QUIETER WEATHER UNDER TRANSIENT RIDGING WILL BE
REPLACED BY ONE FINAL TROUGH AT SOME POINT ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF
MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR WHICH LOOKS TO DIVE INTO THE GULF COME
MONDAY. PRECIP MERIT FROM SUN-SUN NIGHT DOESN/T SHOW MUCH
SUBSTANCE AMONG THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS...SO POPS WERE SCALED
BACK IN COVERAGE TO BETTER MATCH THE DRIER SUPERBLEND AND
CONSENSUS ROUTES.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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