Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 052043
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
343 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...
AIRMASS RECOVERY CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. CU FIELD LOOKING HEALTHIER SOUTH INTO THE
PERMIAN BASIN WHERE HEATING INTO THE MID 70S-LOW 80S HAS
MATERIALIZED...SO WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO INITIATE LOCALLY AND BECOME
STRONGER AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER
DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL PROVIDE LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WHILE SEVERAL SURFACE FEATURES WILL HELP TO
PROVIDE A LOW LEVEL FOCUS. THESE NAMELY CONSIST OF A SURFACE LOW
FROM NEAR GUYMON TO CARLSBAD...CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY/DIFFUSE DRYLINE
STRETCHING FROM TATUM TO BIG SPRING...AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG
US 62/82 BETWEEN LUBBOCK AND BROWNFIELD. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S-
LOW 60S ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...OWING TO A COLD
POCKET OF H50 TEMPERATURES...WILL FOSTER CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG
AS INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROMOTES DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40
KNOTS. A 30-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING...FURTHER AIDING IN THE CURVING/LENGTHENING OF HODOGRAPHS.

EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL SEVERE MODES /LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES/. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...WOULD EXPECT HAIL TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD WANE WITH TIME THIS
EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AND UPDRAFT BASES BECOME
ELEVATED...WHILE THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE
WITH TIME AS STORMS BECOME DOWNDRAFT DOMINANT. BRUNT OF
STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY LATE THIS EVENING OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE...BUT COULD STILL SEE LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH ONSET OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL AGAIN HAVE
THE POSSIBILITY TO TURN SEVERE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S LEADING
TO 2000-3000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH 25-30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR IN PLACE.
THE MISSING PLAYER WILL HOWEVER BE THE LARGE SCALE FORCING IN WAKE
OF TODAY/S SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...
LATE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR GENERALLY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A SLOSHING
DRYLINE THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
WRN CONUS...DIGS TO THE 4-CORNERS REGION THEN LIFTS NEWD ONTO THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS. PROGS STILL KEEP THIS NEXT LOW ON A TRAJECTORY
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION
TONIGHT...SO A REPEAT OF THE HEAVY RAIN FROM LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING IS NOT NECESSARILY IN THE OFFING AS IT WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE DIFFICULT TO DRAW DEEP RICH MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTH PLAINS
REGION WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW LIKELY STAYING VEERED TO THE SW.
REGARDLESS...SET UP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION THURSDAY...INCREASING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW.

A PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUNDAY...
WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SERN CORNER WHERE ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HANG ON TO JUSTIFY A THUNDER MENTION AS
LATE AS SUNDAY NIGHT. APPROACHING SHORT WAVE RIDGING SHOULD THEN
RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER MONDAY...POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES LOOK FAIRLY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL CONTINUE
PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS OF UNDERCUTTING MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK TOWARD A BLEND OF RAW
MODEL AND OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  78  52  78 /  30   0  10  20
TULIA         54  81  57  78 /  60  10  20  40
PLAINVIEW     55  81  58  78 /  50  10  30  40
LEVELLAND     56  83  59  80 /  20  10  20  40
LUBBOCK       59  84  60  81 /  40  10  30  40
DENVER CITY   55  83  58  81 /  20  10  20  30
BROWNFIELD    58  84  60  81 /  20  10  30  40
CHILDRESS     62  84  63  80 /  70  20  40  50
SPUR          60  84  60  79 /  60  30  40  50
ASPERMONT     63  84  63  81 /  40  30  40  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/07



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