Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 252335
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
635 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL BACK OFF THIS EVENING BUT THEN RETURN ON
SUNDAY AT KLBB AND KPVW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE KCDS
AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING E-NERLY.
THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CEILINGS AT KCDS AND WE WILL
LEAVE VFR FOR NOW. ALSO...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-BASED
-TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD BRING STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS TO
KLBB AND KPVW BUT THE ODDS ARE TOO SLIM TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME. KCDS WILL ALSO SEE A CHANCE OF TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
FOLLOWING A QUIET OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE FORECAST TRENDS
INCREASINGLY COMPLEX AND UNSETTLED IN ADVANCE OF A STACKED CYCLONE
PROGGED TO ARRIVE OVER CENTRAL NM BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEAN WESTERLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK AS THIS LOW APPROACHES AND WITH PRESSURE
FALLS FOCUSING ACROSS EASTERN NM...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY
SHOULD ENSUE. HOWEVER...THE DEGREE OF THIS MOISTURE RECOVERY DOES
LOOK TO BE MARGINALIZED BY NORTHERLY FLOW STILL UNDERWAY ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS INVOLVES A MODEST BACKDOOR FRONT
EDGING SW THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NE TX PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MAKE ADDITIONAL HEADWAY SW TONIGHT AS PRE-FRONTAL MIXING
CEASES. CONCERN IS THAT MODELS ARE TOO CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS
BOUNDARY/S LOCATION BY SUN MORNING AND THAT IT COULD EASILY END UP
ANOTHER ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS OUR NE ZONES.
REGARDLESS...BY LATE MORNING E-SE WINDS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL TUG A SEPARATE RESERVOIR OF MOISTURE WESTWARD FROM
OKLAHOMA.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BISECT THE TX
PANHANDLE FROM NW-SE AND INTERSECT WITH A DRYLINE ARCING NW FROM THE
ROLLING PLAINS TOWARD A SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLE.
ALOFT...THE PATTERN IS ANYTHING BUT DULL AS A CYCLONIC JET CORE WILL
BE FOUND CURLING N-NE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE BY
MIDDAY. ROBUST HEIGHT FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 30-60M PER 12HR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CWA DURING THIS TIME ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG MID-
LEVEL COLD POCKET. GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE SHOULD AT LEAST GRAZE
OUR NERN COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE CAPES AND STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ARE MAXIMIZED...THOUGH IF THE FRONT RESIDES FARTHER
SOUTH THEN OUR WORK WILL CERTAINLY BE CUT OUT FOR US AS SUPERCELLS
AND SOME TORS WILL BE A FAIR BET NEAR THE FRONT. ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST WESTWARD WITH THE DRYLINE POSITION BY SUN AFTERNOON AND WE
CONTINUE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN OUR POPS MOSTLY GIVEN THE PLACEMENT
OF PRESSURE FALLS BULLSEYE-ING IN NEW MEXICO.

LASTLY...A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST FOR PRECIP SHOULD EMERGE ACROSS
ERN NM AND OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON AS STOUT
HEIGHT FALLS GARNER AT LEAST A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE. WHILE
THIS AREA IS FAR REMOVED FROM THE DRYLINE...HIGH BASED SHALLOW
CONVECTION IN THIS ENVIRONMENT SPELLS A RECIPE FOR DRY MICROBURSTS
NOT AT ALL UNLIKE WHAT WE SAW THIS PAST APRIL 8TH. DOWNDRAFT CAPES
TOMORROW OF 500-1000 J/KG IN THIS STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT APPEAR
PRETTY SOLID FOR STRONG OR DMGG WINDS. ISOLATED T-STORM MENTION
ACROSS OUR WEST MAY NEED TO BE RATCHETED UP MUCH FURTHER IN LATER
FORECASTS IF THIS SCENARIO SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO PLAY OUT.

LONG TERM...
NEARLY BAROTROPIC LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING AND
SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD ON MONDAY.  AS TUESDAY ROLLS
AROUND...SEVERAL SOLUTIONS WANT TO DEVELOP A TRAILING TROUGH HANGING
AROUND WEST TEXAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  OUR PART OF THE STATE PROBABLY
WILL BE IN THE SUBSIDENT PORTION OF THIS FEATURE THOUGH SOME LIFT
COULD BE EVIDENT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  FOR THE LATTER
EXTENDED...A TILTED RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIR BEFORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

SUNDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY SEE ONGOING TSRA IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST
AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CWFA.  THIS COINCIDES
WITH THE UL LOW MOVING OVERHEAD WHICH WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING THROUGH MONDAY.  AT
THIS POINT..PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN ZONES. A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR COMES IN MONDAY NIGHT THEN LARGELY
TAPERING BY TUESDAY MORNING.  THERE MAY BE A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS
EAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT GIVEN SCENARIOS LIKE THIS IN THE
PAST...OVERALL RISK SEEMS FAIRLY LOW.  COOLER TEMPERATURES PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINING WORKWEEK THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
THAT PRECIPITATION COULD MOVE IN OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  74  44  55 /   0  20  50  50
TULIA         49  78  47  58 /   0  20  50  60
PLAINVIEW     50  79  48  61 /   0  10  40  60
LEVELLAND     51  78  46  65 /   0  20  20  50
LUBBOCK       52  81  48  65 /   0  10  30  50
DENVER CITY   51  77  45  67 /   0  10  20  40
BROWNFIELD    51  80  47  68 /   0  10  20  40
CHILDRESS     55  82  55  61 /   0  20  50  70
SPUR          53  83  53  69 /   0  10  40  50
ASPERMONT     55  85  56  73 /   0  20  40  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33


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