Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 170512
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1212 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS WEAKENING WITH IT CURRENTLY AFFECTING
BOTH KLBB AND KPVW ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED STORM NEAR KCDS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE NEAR KCDS BRINGING IN POSSIBLE
LOWERED CIGS LATER THIS MORNING. A DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EAST OF THIS FEATURE. THIS MAY
BRING AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TO KCDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING WILL AFFECT KCDS IN THE IMMEDIATE
TERM. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING WELL WEST
OF THE REGION IN NEW MEXICO. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR ON WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REACH THE KLBB/KPVW TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IF STORMS DO MAKE IT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
TERMINALS...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THERE ALSO EXISTS A CHANCE OF LOW CIGS/VISBYS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT OCCURRENCE OF THIS IS
UNCLEAR AT THE MOMENT AND MAY DEPEND ON WHETHER STORMS DO MOVE
INTO THE TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS DIFLUENT
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTERACTS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND DRY-
LINE. EXPECTED ENERGY LEVELS IN THE 1000-2500 JOULES PER KILOGRAM
RANGE OVERNIGHT WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR MOSTLY GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE
INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S.

INITIAL TORNADO WATCH JUST TO OUR NORTH WHILE OUR AREA REMAINS QUIET
AT THE MOMENT...THOUGH CUMULUS FIELD PERCOLATING ESPECIALLY EASTERN
ZONES AND DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD STREET FEATURES POINT TO POTENTIAL
FOR HORIZONTAL ROLLS. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS STILL INDICATE
THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT NEAR AND EAST OF THE DRY-LINE JUST EAST
OF THE I-27 AND US 87 CORRIDOR AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST FAIRLY
QUICKLY...WHILE APPROACHING DYNAMIC ENERGY WILL PUT INCREASING
UPWARDS PRESSURE TO CONVECT CLOSER TO WESTERN BORDER DURING THE
EVENING. SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF SOME KIND OF
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SPREADING OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...THOUGH
UNCLEAR IF EARLY OR LATE...OR SEMI-DISCREET MULTI-CELL AND
SUPERCELLS VS. MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE. A LOT REMAINS UNCERTAIN EVEN
AT THIS LATE JUNCTURE. BUT GIVEN OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FAVORING AT
LEAST MODERATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INDICES COMBINED WITH A KNOWN
SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCING PATTERN...IT IS BEST TO CONTINUE A HIGH
CHANCE OR LIKELY CATEGORY OF STORMS OVERNIGHT.

BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OUR CURRENT BEST GUESS IS THAT
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OR REMNANTS WILL BE SPREADING THROUGH OR AWAY FROM
EASTERN ZONES EARLY FRIDAY. UPPER LOW SHOULD WOBBLE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD FAVOR DRIER LOW AND MID LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW. BETTER EXPECTATION THAT SURFACE DRY-LINE WILL BE SOMEWHERE
FROM THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. WE HAVE EDGED
THUNDER CHANCES SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES
FRIDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE AND STILL PERHAPS STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDER
THREAT THROUGH OUR EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THIS EXTENDED FCST DUE TO IMPENDING SEVERE
CONVECTION. OVERALL PATTERN FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY VARYING DEGREES OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. INITIAL
STACKED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL CRAWL EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND SPREAD STRONGER SW FLOW AND DRIER AIR THROUGH THE
REGION BEFORE A MODEST CANADIAN FRONT ARRIVES SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN.
MEAN AFTERNOON DRYLINE POSITION SHOULD RESIDE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...SO POPS REMAIN NEXT TO NIL. BEHIND THE LOW...CYCLONIC NW
FLOW BY MON-TUE ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA MAY FOSTER
THE NEXT LOW-END PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL A MORE BONA FIDE PRECIP
PATTERN UNFOLDS BY MID-TO-LATE WEEK AS WINDS ALOFT BACK SWLY IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. MAX AND MIN
TEMPS LOOK TO STAY WITHIN 5 OR SO DEGREES OF CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        71  41  70  42 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         75  44  73  46 /  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     74  45  73  46 /  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     74  44  74  46 /  10   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       76  46  75  47 /  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   73  44  74  47 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    74  46  76  48 /  10   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     78  55  78  52 /  50  20  10  10
SPUR          77  53  79  51 /  40  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     79  56  82  53 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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