Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 221754
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1254 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW CEILINGS ARE LIFTING AT KLBB AND KCDS AND WE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF -TSRA IMPACTING KPVW SO WE HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP THERE. MFVR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST AT
KCDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF -TSRA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TONIGHT...VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS MAY RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND SOME FOG ACROSS THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE ONSET AND DURATION OF ANY REDUCTIONS
IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT KLBB AND KPVW...BUT KCDS WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015/

UPDATE...
QUITE A BIT TO CONSIDER WITH THIS UPDATE. MORNING CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS WESTERN OKLA HAS SENT OUT SEVERAL OUTFLOW
SURGES INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. ONE SURGE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
SWWD THROUGH THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER IS MOVING WWD
ACROSS THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE. ALSO OF NOTE...WEST TEXAS MESONET
OBS SHOW A BROAD SURFACE IN THE VICINITY OF PARMER COUNTY. LOW
STRATUS IS STILL PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA AT 1030 AM...FILLING IN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE WHILE BEGINNING TO THIN OUT SOME
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...AND ERODING PRETTY QUICKLY FROM THE WEST
FROM FAR ERN NM INTO WRN YOAKUM AND COCHRAN COUNTIES.

PROBABLY THE CONVECTIVE MAIN CONCERNS ARE WHERE THE PRIMARY
BOUNDARY WILL SET UP THIS AFTERNOON AND IF LINGERING CLOUD COVER
AND LOW-LVL COOL ADVECTION WILL KEEP SOME AREAS CAPPED TO SFC-
BASED CONVECTION. THE LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE BOUNDARY AT 3 PM STRETCHING FROM QUAY OR
CURRY COUNTIES NM...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NRN SOUTH PLAINS...THEN
BENDING S-SE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...WHERE IT COULD SHOW SOME
NWD RETREAT AS A WARM FRONT. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MAKE A SOLID
EASTWARD PUSH THROUGH THE NRN PERMIAN BASIN AND OUR SRN/CENTRAL
COUNTIES AND MAY INTERSECT/JOIN WITH THE OUTFLOW IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS.

A SURVEY OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HINTS AT TWO AREAS OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. ONE IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TRIPLE-
POINT NEAR THE STATE LINE WEST/NORTHWEST OF FRIONA. THE OTHER IS
ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK OF THE DRYLINE BULGE WHICH COULD EDGE
TOWARD THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS. T-STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH AND CAN TAP INTO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY JUST ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AS THEY MOVE E-SE INTO THE MORE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT MAY POSE A TORNADO THREAT...PROVIDED THE COLD SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY IS NOT TOO STABLE. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT THE PRIMARY
THREAT TODAY TO BE LARGE HAIL...WITH 2K J/KG OR SO OF MUCAPE AND
40-50 KTS OF DEEP- LAYER SHEAR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
REGION WILL TAKE A BEATING TODAY AS ENERGY CONTINUES TO RIDE A
MODEST SUBTROPICAL JET FROM THE DESERT AREAS INTO OUR REGION. THIS
WILL INTERACT WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO SETTLE
DIAGONALLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. IN SPITE OF THE RIDGE AND A MODEST CAP IN MID LEVELS...
IMPROVED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TODAY NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BEAT THROUGH AND DEVELOP A HEALTHY POSITIVE
AREA AMOUNTING TO 1000-2000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM ALONG WITH BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 40-60 KNOTS. AND HODOGRAPHS MAY GROW SUFFICIENTLY IN
LOWEST KILOMETER OR SO BY EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST ZONES FOR A RISK OF TORNADOS NEAR THE DRYLINE
INTERSECTION THAT ALSO WILL NEED CONSIDERATION. WHERE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY SETTLES LATER TODAY OF COURSE WILL BE IMPORTANT
FOR HONING IN ON A THREAT AREA. BUT THE RISKS SEEM SUFFICIENT AT
THIS POINT TO ADD MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN GRIDS AS
WELL AS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ACTIVITY THIS EVENING SHOULD SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...PERHAPS SHOVING IT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...AND THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OUR AREA THOUGH DIFFICULT TO SAY WHEN
IT WILL END AS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER SOUTHERN
ROCKIES MAY TEND TOWARDS OUR AREA AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

FEW ADDITIONAL CHANGES. MILD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN. STRATUS LIFTING
NORTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING LOOKS CAPABLE OF AT LEAST BRIEF FOG
RISK FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. DRIER BREEZES WILL DOMINATE
SOUTHWEST ZONES. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A PROGRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...CHARACTERIZED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE ORIGINATING NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA APPROACHING WEST
TEXAS BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NET RESULT WILL BE
ALTERNATING PERIODS CONDUCIVE TO ISOLATED STORMS AND BREEZY WINDS
WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE BALLPARK OF CLIMATOLOGY.

INDICATIONS THIS MORNING THAT ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY MAY SAG FARTHER SOUTH THURSDAY IN
COMBINATION WITH OUTFLOW FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT/S ACTIVITY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INHIBIT CHANCES
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO STREAM IN
WARMER AIR ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP MENTION
OF STORMS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AS
THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. PERHAPS A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY COME THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH THE TRANSITION TO CYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH. DESPITE INCREASING DEEP LAYER WIND
FIELDS AND PERHAPS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...STOUT H85
THERMAL RIDGING AND VEERING SURFACE WIND FIELDS...CORRESPONDING TO
LEE TROUGHING CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...WILL CONTINUE TO
PUT A SIGNIFICANT DAMPER ON THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.

UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON SENDING
THE DRYLINE WELL EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THIS FEATURE SHEARING OUT AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH IS IN
CONTRAST TO A PREVIOUSLY PROGGED CLOSED LOW WHICH WOULD HAVE IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD PUSHED WINDS TO OR ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS.
NONETHELESS...SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 MPH STILL REMAIN
A DECENT BET WITH A SURFACE LOW EJECTING ONTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. THIS STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING INSOLATION SHOULD
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING LOOKS TO LEAD TO A DRY AND WARM START TO THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN IN THE 80S...BEFORE A SYSTEM
DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA
INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE HAS TRENDED MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH AN
ATTENDANT FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT STORM CHANCES AHEAD OF A DRYLINE
SUNDAY/MONDAY. HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE FUTURE
SOLUTIONS. A PERIOD OF DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF WESTERN CONUS
RIDGING THEN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  80  48  80 /  20  10   0   0
TULIA         51  79  52  83 /  30  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     52  79  53  83 /  20  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     51  81  54  83 /  10   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       53  81  56  84 /  20  10  10   0
DENVER CITY   51  81  53  82 /   0   0  10   0
BROWNFIELD    52  82  56  83 /  10   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     55  75  58  86 /  50  20  20  10
SPUR          57  79  59  85 /  30  10  20  10
ASPERMONT     60  80  63  86 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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