Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 021125
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
625 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF CYCLE WITH PASSING
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE GUSTY
SIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD SWAY OVER WEST TEXAS AGAIN TODAY
BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD TONIGHT AND KICKING OFF A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...HIGH-
BASED MOIST CONVECTION WILL FIRE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW
MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES COULD BE
GRAZED BY CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...THOUGH IT
STILL APPEARS POINTS FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST ARE AT GREATER
RISK. GIVEN THIS...AND THE DEEP AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER THAT WILL BE
IN PLACE...WE HAVE KEPT POPS DOWN AROUND 10 PERCENT OVER THE
NORTHWEST ZONES TODAY/TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THOUGH A BOUT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD WILL GRADUALLY
FADE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE BEING REPLACED BY ANOTHER
ROUND OF MID/HIGH CLOUD TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
RESULT IN A MODEST PRESSURE LOCALLY WHICH IN TURN WILL GENERATE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. EVEN
WITH SOME CLOUD COVER OCCASIONALLY FILTERING THE SUN TODAY...HIGHS
SHOULD STILL PEAK A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. TONIGHT WILL BE MILD
TOO...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

LONG TERM...
..WET FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...

THE LATEST MODEL DATA IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT BOTH BETWEEN DIFFERENT
MODELS AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...WHICH INCREASES OUR CONFIDENCE
IN THE OVERALL WET PATTERN TO AFFECT WEST TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

THE ACTIVE WEATHER SHOULD KICK OFF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING
ONSHORE ACROSS SRN CALI/NRN BAJA. LIFT FROM THIS WAVE WILL
INTERSECT THE DRYLINE CLOSE TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AND SHOULD
HELP INITIATE SOME T-STORM DEVELOPMENT. THESE STORMS WILL BE
RATHER HIGH-BASED...AND A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SO THEY SHOULD NOT
POSE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT MORE THAN STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. IT IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW FAR EAST THE ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE
SUNDAY EVENING...THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE TENDS TO KILL OFF
THE STORMS JUST BEFORE THEY REACH THE I-27/US 87 CORRIDOR...BUT
THERE/S CERTAINLY A LITTLE LEEWAY THERE.

EVEN AS THAT INITIAL SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO
FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT
SW. HEIGHT FALLS AND BACKING WINDS WILL DRAW THE DRYLINE ALL THE
WAY WEST TO THE NM MOUNTAINS...WHERE IT SHOULD REMAIN ANCHORED ALL
DAY MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WEAK CAPPING SHOULD
GIVE WAY RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY...PERHAPS EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN NM AND WEST TEXAS. IT APPEARS THAT WESTERN AREAS ON THE
CAPROCK WILL BE FAVORED FOR INITIAL ACTIVITY DUE TO THEIR
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH. IT ALSO APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND WE THINK THIS PERIOD
MAY BRING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACTIVITY AS WELL. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PINPOINT WHERE
A MORE BROAD HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL DEVELOP...BUT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS NEWD INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX
PANHANDLE MAY HAVE HIGHER ODDS THAN AREAS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL THEN PASS OVER AND NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. AGAIN...WE CONTINUE TO HAVE QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF TUESDAY/S WEATHER DUE TO WHAT
ACTUALLY TRANSPIRES MONDAY NIGHT. DESPITE COOLER TEMPS AND CLOUDY
SKIES...IT MAY YET BE POSSIBLE TO REALIZE SOME SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY IN
ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. WE WILL ALSO HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH-DRYLINE TO MAKE A MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE STATE LINE AS WELL AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CI. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF EASTWARD PROGRESSION
THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OVERALL THROUGH THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD...MANY LOCATIONS MAY
RECEIVE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL WITH A STRONG
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...FOCUSED ON THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

SOME SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE ON
WEDNESDAY. BUT LESS CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO MORE HEATING...AND
WITH THE DRYLINE STILL IN THE AREA...LIKELY SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
CAPROCK ESCARPMENT...SOME DIURNAL T-STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE. IN FACT...A STRONGER QPF SIGNAL HAS EMERGED FOR THURSDAY
AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS BACK TO THE WEST AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AND THE FORECAST PATTERN SUPPORTS A
CONTINUING CHANCE OF DIURNAL T-STORM ACTIVITY...FOCUSED ON THE
DRYLINE...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        84  53  86  53 /  10  10  30  20
TULIA         83  53  84  57 /   0  10  10  30
PLAINVIEW     82  54  83  56 /   0  10  10  30
LEVELLAND     84  54  86  55 /   0  10  20  30
LUBBOCK       84  56  86  59 /   0  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   84  54  87  55 /   0   0  20  20
BROWNFIELD    85  55  86  58 /   0   0  20  20
CHILDRESS     85  57  86  61 /   0  10   0  10
SPUR          84  56  84  59 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     85  58  84  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23



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