Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 010902
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
402 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
VERY WEAK MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND IN PLACE ACROSS ALL BUT THE
ROLLING PLAINS.  LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND OFF THE CAPROCK HAS HELPED
TO KEEP LOW TO MID 50 DEWPOINTS IN PLACE WHILE WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT STILL HAS DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS ALSO HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST
UNDER 70 DEGREES EARLY THIS MORNING. ALOFT...A SLOW MOVING
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SECOND SHORTWAVE KICKING OUT ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ONCE AGAIN AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP HELPING WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  DEEP MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE ONCE AGAIN
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH READING SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
SAW ON TUESDAY.  MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OR EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA EVEN THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE TO NO
CAP OVER THE REGION AND CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG.  WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO BUT LACK OF
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND VERY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS KEEP THIS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY AS THE ENVIRONMENT IS
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED.  SAME STORY FOR LOW TEMPS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING.

JORDAN

.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF ON THE HOT...DRY AND WINDY SIDE AS
WESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE IN ADVANCE OF A
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS. THESE
DRY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL SECURE AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S. UNFORTUNATELY...THE HOT...DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO LIKELY CONSPIRE TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OR ALL OF THE CWA /SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
DETAILS/. WINDS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 20-
30 MPH RANGE /SUSTAINED/...THOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY
AS THE LATEST GFS IS TRYING TO ADVERTISE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
WINDS...PERHAPS THREATENING LOW-END ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE CAPROCK.
THESE WINDS COULD KICK UP A LITTLE BLOWING DUST TOO...THOUGH IT
SHOULD BE PRETTY MINIMAL ASSUMING SUSTAINED SPEEDS DO REMAIN AOB 30
MPH.

A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW EARLY FRIDAY AS THE WESTERN SHORTWAVE
EMERGES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE FROPA SHOULD BE A DRY
ONE...THOUGH IT COULD BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF STRATUS IF THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND COOLING. MORE GUSTY WINDS /SUSTAINED AT 20-30
MPH/ WILL ALSO FOLLOW ON FRIDAY...THOUGH THIS TIME THEY WILL BE FROM
THE NORTH. IN ADDITION...HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY...ONLY IN THE 60S AT MOST SPOTS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN...AND THIS WILL
MEAN A COOL START TO THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS EARLY SATURDAY IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S.

RETURN FLOW WILL FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. INITIALLY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TOUGH TO
COME BY...BUT IT SHOULD IMPROVE BY SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTS...AND WE COULD EVEN SEE A BOUT OF LOW CLOUDS SUNDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE OR TWO MAY RACE BY IN
THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE LATEST NWP HAS
TRENDED WEAKER AND LESS COHERENT WITH THE WEEKEND
DISTURBANCE/S/...THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME INDICATION A FEW
SHOWERS COULD VISIT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND WE
HAVE ACCEPTED THE BLENDED POPS THAT REFLECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THEN.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH AN OSCILLATING DRYLINE IN THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY WARM IN THIS PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING
BACK TO AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. IN ADDITION...THE DRYLINE
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR LATE DAY CONVECTION...THOUGH AT THIS POINT
IT STILL APPEARS IT MAY RESIDE JUST TO THE EAST OF OUR CWA BY PEAK
HEATING. INSTEAD...DRY...WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEST OF THE
DRYLINE WILL AGAIN ACT TO ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER. OVERALL...ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
BORDERLINE WITH 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. MINIMUM
RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT WEST OF A TULIA TO
PLAINS LINE. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BUT THEY WILL BE
INCONSISTENT IN TIME. PLAN ON ISSUING A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE. EAST OF THAT
LINE...MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT AND WIND
SPEEDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT LOWER.

THURSDAY WILL BRING MORE WARMTH AND EVEN DRIER AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION...AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA...VALID THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AT 15-20 DEGREE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH
RH VALUES DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON THE CAPROCK...WITH TEENS
LIKELY IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. THESE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE
COUPLED WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30
MPH...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY UP ON THE CAPROCK. OFF THE CAPROCK...WINDS
MAY BE A LITTLE LIGHTER AND HUMIDITIES A LITTLE HIGHER MAKING IT LESS
CERTAIN THAT PROLONGED RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL AND WE HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THE
ENTIRE AREA IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THURSDAY EVENING AS WIND
TEMPORARILY WEAKEN...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW EARLY FRIDAY
WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. MUCH COOLER AIR AND
RELATIVELY HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM THE HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...THOUGH THEY COULD RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        84  45  83  40 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         86  47  85  44 /  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     86  48  87  44 /  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     86  49  87  45 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       87  50  89  46 /  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   84  50  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    84  51  88  49 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     89  57  91  51 /  10  10   0   0
SPUR          85  56  91  53 /  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     88  61  93  57 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

14/23



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