Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 231744
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1244 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
THE STUBBORN FOG HAS FINALLY LIFTED ACROSS THE AREA AND THE LOW
CLOUDS ARE RETREATING EAST. STILL...A PLUME OF HIGH CIRRUS SHOULD
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH MORE
FILTERED SUNSHINE ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE. T-STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS PRETTY IFFY THIS AFTERNOON. 12 UTC KAMA AND KMAF
SOUNDINGS SHOWED A STRONG CAP...AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO
WARM. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE/OLD FRONT/OUTFLOW INTERFACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS...BUT
THE CAP WILL LIKELY KEEP STORMS ISOLATED.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW STRATUS WILL LEAVE KLBB AND KPVW LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A RETURN TO VFR IS
MORE UNCERTAIN AT KCDS...BUT WE WILL SHOW A PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT...KCDS IS LIKELY TO SEE SOME VSBY AND/OR
CEILING REDUCTIONS AGAIN...BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED AT KLBB AND
KPVW. OVERNIGHT...SOME ELEVATED -SHRA OR -TSRA MAY AFFECT THE
TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND MAY BECOME SUSTAINED NEAR 30 KTS
AT KLBB BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO DEVELOP ON
THE CAPROCK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

AVIATION...
THE BULK OF SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE BREAKS UP THE STRATUS LAYER EARLY
THIS MORNING BOTH AT KLBB AND KPVW...WHILE RETAINING AT KCDS
PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON. A LARGE CIRRUS SHIELD OVERHEAD
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE DAY. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL RUN FROM EAST
OF KPVW SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.
THE BEST THUNDER CHANCES LATER TODAY NEAR THIS FRONT...MAINLY
SOUTH OF KCDS. HAVE NO THUNDER MENTION IN ANY TAFS. A WAVE WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES ALSO SOUTH
OF KCDS. DRIER AIRMASS WILL INVADE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT.
RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ARCING SUB-TROPICAL UPPER FLOW WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TODAY WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. DISTURBANCE
FROM LAST EVENING NOW FAR TO THE EAST...WHILE A NEW BULGE OF ENERGY
AND HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ALOFT WILL LIFT THROUGH SOUTHWEST TEXAS LATER
THIS MORNING. AND A BETTER BULGE OF ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. NEAR THE SURFACE...COOL AND MOIST
OUTFLOW AIRMASS WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS BUT
SHOULD TEND TO THIN AND MIX OUT AT LEAST ON THE CAPROCK BY LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE SOME OPPORTUNITY TO
ERODE THE SURFACE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN-BETWEEN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST PLAUSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY ONE NOW INDICATES SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OUR EASTERN THIRD THOUGH PRIME AREA
MAY FAVOR MORE SOUTHERN PORTIONS LATER TODAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE PROBABILITIES FAVORING SOUTHEAST CORNER WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER REMAINING EASTERN ZONES THOUGH WITH CAVEAT THAT SURFACE
HEATING WILL BE RATHER RESTRICTED TODAY. DRIER AIRMASS OTHERWISE
WESTERN ZONES TODAY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. RETAINING HEALTHY WEST-
EAST THERMAL GRADIENT. AS WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...
THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD IMPROVE AGAIN FAVORING SOUTHEAST CORNER. WILL
BE INTERESTING TO FOLLOW TRENDS OF MOISTURE TONIGHT TO SEE IF SHOWER
CHANCES MIGHT IMPROVE FURTHER WEST THOUGH SEEMS DOUBTFUL RIGHT NOW.
FEW CHANGES THEREFORE FOR TONIGHT. WE ARE RESTRICTING SEVERE MENTION
TODAY WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVEN THE POSSIBLE
LIMITATIONS LISTED ABOVE. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A PROGRESSIVE SPRINGTIME PATTERN WILL BRING A MIX OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

UPPER DISTURBANCE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL LIFT ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AND THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY.
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST ROLLING PLAINS COULD STILL BE ON THE
FRINGES OF ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHORTLY BEFORE
DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING WITH DECENT UPPER SUPPORT TRAVERSING
THE REGION...BUT A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND PROVERBIAL DRY SLOTTING
SHOULD KEEP DRY CONDITIONS INTACT. INSTEAD...STOUT DEEP LAYER WIND
FIELDS CAPPED BY AN UPPER JET APPROACHING 140-150 KNOTS AT H25
WILL LEAD TO A WINDY DAY COMPLETE WITH A DRY MATTER SWIRLING IN
THE SKY IN THE FORM OF BLOWING DUST. DEEP MIXING SHOULD QUICKLY
ENSUE FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD H70 WIND SPEEDS
OF 30-40 KNOTS EASILY BEING TAPPED INTO AND MIXED TOWARD THE
SURFACE. WILL LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS PINPOINT DETAILS REGARDING A
LIKELY WIND ADVISORY. INCREASING SOLAR INSOLATION AS MID-HIGH
CLOUDS CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AND THESE STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS
CONTRIBUTING TO AN APPRECIABLE THERMAL RIDGE SHOULD WARM DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S AS PROGGED BY THE GFS...ALTHOUGH
MET GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO WANT TO COOL THINGS INTO THE 70S AS WELL
AS BRING A DOSE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST
PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING IN THE SUBSIDING REGION OF THE
PASSING UPPER WAVE. GIVEN PATTERN RECOGNITION...WILL MAINTAIN ZERO
POPS AND KEEP AFOREMENTIONED TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE FOR A SEASONABLE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST AS
DRY DOWNSLOPE SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS PROGGED TO
DIVE OUT OF THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CONUS TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY CONTINUES TO SHOW PROMISE OF
BONAFIDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS WEST TEXAS
WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS. AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS LOOK TO SEE THE BEST SHOT AT
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR NOW AS DRY SLOTTING COULD PLAGUE SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERN TRACK. DRUG OUT THUNDER MENTION
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION OCCURS IN A DEFORMATION
ZONE...BUT THUNDER MAY NEED TO BE PULLED LATER AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CURRENTLY SHOW DECREASING LAPSE RATES AS EXPECTED IN A WORKED OVER
AIRMASS. WILL FORGO DISSECTING THE EXACT DETAILS AT THIS STAGE...BUT
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S/70S APPEAR IN THE OFFING ALONG WITH
THE NEXT BEST SHOT OF NATURAL LAWN WATERING. A WARMING TREND SHOULD
THEN FOLLOW INTO MID-LATE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE
WESTERN INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  80  45  79 /  10   0   0   0
TULIA         53  82  49  82 /  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     54  82  50  81 /  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     55  82  50  81 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       58  83  52  82 /  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   55  81  49  81 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    57  82  51  82 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     60  86  56  87 /  20   0   0   0
SPUR          61  84  55  84 /  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     64  87  57  87 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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