Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 250800 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 400 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW YORK WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MAINE WILL TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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AS OF 07Z...1001MB SFC LOW OVER NRN MAINE...DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE AN OCCLUDED LOW...STATIONARY OVER THE PAST DAY. ANOTHER LOW IS MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO ERN TN. THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TO THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TODAY AND THE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG IT TONIGHT. MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERRUN A RIDGE OVER THE OH/TN VLY AND ROUGHLY OVERSPREAD THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA. CLOUD CEILINGS LOWER FROM NE TO SW. RAIN HAS ENTERED SWRN VA AND WILL SLOWLY OVERCOME THE DRY AIR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. FROST ADVISORIES WILL BE CANCELLED FROM SW TO NE AS CLOUDS SPREAD IN AND LIMIT FROST DEVELOPMENT. TODAY...RAIN SPREADS NORTH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. CATEGORICAL POPS BEGIN MIDDAY FOR FAR SWRN ZONES AND 90/100 POPS SPREAD NE ACROSS THE DC METRO AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE FRONT STALLS OVER SRN VA AND BALTIMORE LOOKS TO BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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TONIGHT...STATIONARY FRONT RETURNS SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP SHIFTS SOUTH ALONG WITH IT...WITH LIKELIES LIMITED TO THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY MORNING. STORM TOTAL QPF QUARTER TO HALF INCH FOR SRN TWO THIRDS OF CWA...TENTH INCH OR SO FOR NERN MD. MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 40S. SUNDAY...NORTH WINDS AND SOMEWHAT CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. JUST LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SRN ZONES FOR THE AFTERNOON. WITH A LITTLE DRIER FORECAST...RAISED MAX TEMPS TO LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...A DEGREE ABOVE MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AVG HIGH TEMPS IN LATE MAR ARE A70...LOWS M40S. IN THE XTND 70 IS PRBLY THE BEST WE CAN HOPE FOR...AND LOWS SHOULD BE RIGHT ARND NRML. HV INCRSD THE CLD CVR CWA-WIDE/INTRODUCED RW INTO THE FCST MON FOR THE NRN/ERN PART OF CWA. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WL BE SPINNING IN THE GULF OF ME...AND A SHARPENING TROF WL WORK ITS WAY SWD DOWN THE E CST INTO THE MID ALTC MON. BLO NRML HIGHS XPCTD - GNRLY IN THE U50S...PSBLY M60S IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY. WK INDUCED HIGH OVR THE AREA TUE/WED WL ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO M60S. AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS XPCTD TO DVLP OVR THE GULF STATES THU...CAUSING INCRSG CLDS IN THE MID ATLC ALONG W/ A CHC OF RAIN. THIS LOW IS XPCTD TO TRACK NE AND COMBINE W/ A SHORT WV DESCENDING FM QUEBEC...FORMING ANOTHER GULF OF ME LOW. THIS ONE IS XPCTD TO FORM TOO FAR OUT TO SEA TO HV ANY IMPACT ON THE MID ATLC OUTSIDE OF KEEPING THE AREA IN COOL NRLY FLOW. THE WEEK SHOULD CLOSE OUT UNDER HIGH PRES.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR THROUGH MIDDAY AS CIGS LOWER AND RAIN SPREADS IN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH FROM NC. FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR DC METROS THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT. IFR CIGS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT SUNDAY. RW/PTNL MVFR CIGS PSBL MON...THEN NO PROBS XPCTD TUE/WED.
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&& .MARINE...
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NORTH WINDS FROM HIGH BUILDING FROM THE NORTH ARE CHANNELING DOWN THE BAY. GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 15 KT...THOUGH OCCASIONAL 20 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH SUNRISE. WILL ISSUE MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY AS THIS SURGE MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND A WARM FRONT ENTERS FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT STALLS TONIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS SUNDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. NORTHERLY CHANNELING WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SCA CONDS WL BE LKLY MON AFTR A CD FNT MOVES THRU THE WATERS AND THE PRES GRAD TIGHTENS.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE. MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ011-503>506. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003>006-507- 508. VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>027-029- 030-038>040-051>053-501-502-506>508. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ028-031-505. WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ051>053. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!

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