Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 011423 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1023 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY...BUT AN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING TO OUR SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SFC LOPRES OFF HSE THIS MRNG. H5 TROF AXIS ALONG THE ERN SEABRD AS WELL. LTST RADAR COMPOSITE DEPICTS PCPN MAINLY S/SE OF CWFA. THIS ACTIVITY WUD BE PIVOTING AWAY FM CWFA. THUS...WE/RE IN A BIT OF A LULL. BUT DAYTIME HEATING /IN SPITE OF CLDCVR/ ON A CNVGNC ZN /CONFLUENT FLOW BTWN CSTL LOW AND MS VLY RDG/ PROVIDES FORCING FOR PSBL PCPN...PRIMARILY LOCATED ALONG/BTWN APLCNS-BLURDG. INSTBLTY MEAGER...BUT LAPSE RATES ADEQUATE TO INCL A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER. TEMPS IN LINE W/ GDNC SO WL LEAVE AS IS FOR NOW. ULTIMATELY...ANY INSOLATION WL AFFECT MAXT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KY BY 12Z SAT MORNING WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY...DID CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR SAT AFTN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. WHILE INSTABILITY IS ONCE AGAIN ON THE MINIMAL SIDE...SHEAR IS A BIT STRONGER AND WITH ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT...COULD SEE A BRIEF SHOWER POP UP. ANY CHC OF PCPN WILL END BY SAT EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPS WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL ON SAT. WITH RISING HEIGHTS BY SAT NIGHT...EXPECTING A WARM UP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND HEADING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE ABV NORMAL...WITH SOME SPOTS POTENTIALLY TOUCHING 80 ON SUNDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN NOTICEABLY WARMER CONDITONS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MONDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY AND A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. SAME GOES FOR THURSDAY...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY STALLS OUT. PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WITH MARINE AIR KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE MORE STABLE FARTHER EAST BEHIND THE STALLED BOUNDARY. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACRS THE TERMINALS. STILL HV LCL MVFR/IFR... MAINLY MRB/CHO. ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS SHUD BE GONE BY NOON. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTN. UNCERTAINTIES REVOLVE ARND EXACT TIMING. REGARDLESS...VFR SHUD RETURN AREAWIDE BY AFTN PUSH. VFR CONDITIONS TNGT THRU SUN NIGHT. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TODAY BCMG LIGHT AND VRB TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND...WHILE SHIFTING FROM THE NW ON SAT TO THE S BY SAT NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. && .MARINE... MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE BAY/LWR PTMC ATTM. WL TRIM UPR WATERS A BIT ERLR THAN PREV PLANNED. AS CSTL LOW PULLS AWAY THE P-GRAD SHUD RELAX. BELIEVE THAT THE REST OF THE ADVY MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANX ELY AS WELL...BUT WL ALLOW ONGOING CONDS TODICTATE WHEN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A NORTHEAST FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES TO INCREASE TO AROUND ONE-HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...LIKELY KEEPING WATER LEVELS ELEVATED ACROSS THE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY SINCE THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO. THE ANOMALIES SHOULD HOLD OR PERHAPS EVEN INCREASE A BIT THROUGH TONIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN WATER LEVELS MAY COME CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. LATEST GDNC SUGGESTS WE WL SQUEEZE JUST UNDER ADVY THRESHOLD. HOWEVER SAT NGT-SUN MRNG WILL BE A CONCERN. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530- 531-535-538-539. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ532>534-536-537-540>543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJL NEAR TERM...HTS SHORT TERM...SEARS LONG TERM...SEARS/BJL AVIATION...HTS/SEARS/BJL MARINE...HTS/SEARS/BJL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL/HTS

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