Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 222331 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 731 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW A STRONG COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT STILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS OCCURRING EACH OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
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UPDATE TO INCLUDE CANCELLATION OF THE WIND ADVISORY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST AND COOLER AIR IS MOVING IN ON A WESTERLY FLOW. ELSEWHERE...THE GUSTY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED DUE TO COOLER AIR AND LESS MIXING. HOWEVER...IT WILL TURN OUT BREEZY WITH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING. A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO LITTLE MOISTURE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS PRECIP ENDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVE...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AND ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE U30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOME GUIDANCE GOING A BIT LOWER...KEEPING A MODERATED REGIME OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND MUCH COOLER FOR THE MTNS AND SHEN VLY REGION. UPSLOPE AREAS MAY CONTINUE TO RECEIVE SOME POST-FRONTAL RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY THURSDAY AS A VORT MAX SWINGS THRU. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THERE WILL ONLY BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THURSDAY. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY...BUT MORE IN THE 25 KT RANGE. LOWS MAY FALL BELOW FREEZING IN THE HIGHLANDS TONIGHT...WITH MID 30S-LOW 40S EAST. 850 MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C THURSDAY...RESULTING IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK TO THE LOW 30S NORTH AND WEST OF THE METRO AREAS TO THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON FRIDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT LOW 60S OVER CENTRAL VA. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM SOTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL DEPART INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY RAIN GRADUALLY ENDING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESURE APPROACHES THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY ON THURSDAY WITH WNW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 KT. VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR SUN-MON W/ NWLY FLOW 10-15 KT.
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&& .MARINE... WINDS HAVE ARLEADY BEGAN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE WATERS. ALTHOUGH MOST WIND SPEEDS ARE AT SCA CRITERIA...THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN ANY SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS THURSDAY AS W WINDS GUST UP TO 25 KT. NO MARINE HAZARDS THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY. NO MARINE HAZARDS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SCA LIKELY SUNDAY IN NWLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... TIDE LEVELS HAVE BECOME ELEVATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HRS...ESPEC OVER THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC W/ THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND BUILD UP AND THEN EVEN AS THE FRONT MOVED THRU...CHANGING WINDS TO A MORE WLY DIRECTION. WINDS WILL NOW STAY OUT OF THE WEST INTO THE NIGHT HRS...OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DROPPING THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES BUT MAY ALSO AFFECT THE NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE. WILL MONITOR THESE TRENDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS WATER LEVELS WILL AT THE VERY LEAST REMAIN ELEVATED. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534- 537>543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ535-536. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...GMS NEAR TERM...BJL/GMS SHORT TERM...GMS LONG TERM...DFH AVIATION...BJL/GMS/KRW/DFH MARINE...BJL/GMS/KRW/DFH TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GMS

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