Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 231950 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 350 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...EMERGING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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ANOTHER BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE MID-ATLC. YESTERDAY`S COLD FRONT BROUGHT ABOUT ANOTHER MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF WELL-BELOW AVG CONDS THAT WILL LARGELY LINGER WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. TODAY IS THE SECOND DAY OF DAILY UPPER WAVE PASSAGES INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...W/ DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEING THE MAIN WX STORY. TEMPS ARE HAVING TROUBLE GETTING INTO THE MID-50S AND MOST LOCALES WON`T REACH THE 60F MARK BY THE END OF PEAK HEATING THIS AFTN. BREEZY WNW WINDS ARE EFFICIENTLY PREVENTING DEWPOINTS FROM CLIMBING ANY HIGHER THAN THE U20S...FAIRLY DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS SETS THE AREA UP FOR CONSECUTIVE NEAR AND SUB-FREEZING OVERNIGHT PERIODS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF OVERNIGHTS. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTED TO KEEP A MORE MILD TEMP REGIME OVER SRN MD...WHILE OTHER LOCAL AND BIAS-CORRECTED VERSIONS COOLED-OFF THE WRN SECTIONS OF THE AREA A BIT TOO MUCH. THE MAV AND ECM WERE BLENDED FOR A BETTER DEPICTION OF THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. HAVE CONVERTED THE FREEZE WATCH INTO A FREEZE WARNING FOR SAME LOCALES OVERNIGHT...MAINLY FOR POCKETS OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS TOWARD DAWN FRI W/ CLOUDS EXITING AND SHELTERED LOCATIONS SEEING CALM/DECOUPLED WINDS FROM THE NEAR-SFC LAYER. PLENTY OF CLOUDS SLIDING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN BUT FRI WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR. THE UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY`S CLOUD COVER WILL BE WELL OFF THE COAST...W/ MAINLY AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE SWEEPING THRU TMRW AND TAKING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE ON PAR W/ TODAY`S CONDS AS WE START OFF COLDER BUT W/ LESS CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY AND A HIGHER SUN ANGLE...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE UP FOR THE COLDER START.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AREA WL BE AFFECTED BY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIPRES FRI NGT. FLOW ALOFT WL BE DISORGANIZED THROUGH AS DP H5 LOPRES WL BE EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND A SECOND STORM SYSTEM WL BE CROSSING THE PLAINS. MAY GET SOME HIGH CLDS LATE...OTRW WL BE IN A DCPLD ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW DEWPTS. TEMPS WL BE BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. FCST REFLECTS A BLEND. CLDS WL BE THICKENING AND LOWERING SAT AS WAA OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THERE SHUD BE ENUF UPGLIDE FOR PCPN...BUT THE ACTIVE SRN STREAM OF THE UPR JET SUGGESTS THAT PCPN WL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TOO FAR NORTH TOO QUICKLY. ASSOCIATED LOPRES WL BE NEAREST LATE SAT NGT...AND MADE THAT THE WETTEST PD. NE MD POPS STILL DONT RISE ABV CHC. ON THE OTHER HAND...CAT POPS FOR A PORTION OF THE PTMC HIGHLANDS. LKLY IN BTWN. SAT MIDDAY-AFTN WL BE THE PD WHEN PCPN OVERSPREADS AREA... AND HV OFFERED GRDLY INCRSG POPS. SUNDAY DOESNT LOOK PRETTY...BUT ITS DISORGANIZED. WL HV SFC LOPRES EMERGING OFF THE COAST WHILE THE UPR LOW RETROGRADES TO OUR NORTH AND STARTS TO FILL. THINK IT/LL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY BUT PCPN WL BE SPOTTY IF ANY. THIS WL KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THANKS TO A NORTHERLY FLOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SOLID VFR CONDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH THE MAIN NOTES ARE THE CONTINUED GUSTY SFC AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. TOP-END GUSTS CONTINUE TO SHOW IN THE 25-30KT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TOWARD 00Z THIS EVE. A STEADY BREEZE AROUND 5KT CONTINUES INTO MID-MRNG FRI...THEN ANOTHER INCREASE BACK TOWARD THE 20-30KT RANGE DURING THE MIDDAY HRS. CIGS THIS AFTN ARE LOWEST IN THE 5-7KT RANGE...MORE DENSE OVER NRN MD AND DISSIPATING OFF CLOSER TO THE KCHO AREA. MAINLY CLR SKIES FOR FRI AFTN. SHUD HV VFR FLGT CONDS FOR THE MRNG HRS...BUT CLDS WL THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE DAY. MVFR-IFR LATE SAT INTO ELY SUN. LOWER CONFIDENCE WHAT FLGT CAT WE WL BE IN SUN AFTN...BUT SUSPECT RESTRICTIONS WL LINGER. VFR MON-TUE.
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&& .MARINE...
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SOLID SCA CONDS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVE HRS...DIMINISHING TO LOWER END GUSTS AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...A NLY SURGE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWN THE MAIN CHANNELS OF THE MD CHES BAY AND MAY LEAD TO SOME HIGH-END SCA GUSTS OR A FEW ISOLATED GALE GUSTS. SCA IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY OVERNIGHT...THEN FOR ALL THE WATERS AGAIN ON FRIDAY W/ ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY NW WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. NLY FLOW FRI NGT WL DIMINISH OVNGT. LGT/VRBL FLOW OVER THE WKND.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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BREEZY WNW WINDS TODAY AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL SET PARTS OF THE AREA UP FOR SOME ENHANCED FIRE WX CONCERNS ON FRIDAY. FUEL MOISTURES WERE JUST ABOVE THRESHOLD VALUES TODAY. ALSO FAIRLY DENSE CLOUD COVER AND COOL TEMPS HAVE LIMITED THE THREAT FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...SEVERAL HRS WORTH OF DRY AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL LIKELY DECREASE FUEL MOISTURES ENOUGH FOR PORTIONS OF N CNTRL VA/BLUE RIDGE/FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY SRN MD TO BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA FRI AFTN. THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE AREA WILL BE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS NERN MD...NOT EXACTLY COINCIDENT W/ THE DRIEST FUEL MOISTURES IN THE AREA.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ003>006-507. VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ025>031-507- 508. WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ051>053. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534- 537>543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535- 536. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ535- 536. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HTS NEAR TERM...GMS/HTS SHORT TERM...HTS LONG TERM...CEM/BJL AVIATION...GMS/HTS MARINE...GMS/HTS FIRE WEATHER...GMS

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