Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 261345 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 945 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPIN IN THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY...REACHING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY EVENING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NC...WITH ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED LOW OFFSHORE. MOST LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO THE DELMARVA AND TIDEWATER...WITH A FEW SHOWERS LEFTOVER NEAR ST. MARY`S COUNTY. FORECAST UPDATED BEFORE 930 TO REFLECT ACTIVITY LEAVING THE CWA MORE QUICKLY...AND THE 1030 SCHEDULED UPDATE WILL REFINE THIS FURTHER. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGHLANDS BASED ON 06NAM AND HRRR. SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT STRATOCU REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY HIGHER TO THE NORTH WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED. LOW 60S NORTH...UPR 50S FOR SWRN ZONES GIVEN MORE CLOUDS FROM THE DEPARTING FRONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... TONIGHT...NORTH WIND INCREASES 10 TO 15 MPH LATE WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS THE ZONAL UPR TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. MIN TEMPS UPR 30S NW OF BALT-WASH CORRIDOR AND WEST OF BLUE RIDGE...LOW TO MID 40S REST OF THE AREA. DRY. MONDAY...UPR TROUGH FROM LOW OFF MAINE SLIDES INTO THE AREA. GENERALLY INSTABILITY WITH ISO/SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NW. SNOW FLAKES ABOVE ABOUT 2500 FT ELEVATION. WENT A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUDS. BREEZY NWLY FLOW 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... CONDS SHOULD BE IMPRVG MON NGT INTO TUE AS INDUCED HIGH PRES MOVES INTO THE MID ATLC BEHIND THE DEPARTING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE GULF OF ME. BRZY CONDS XPCTD MON NGT/TUE. SKIES SHOULD BE ON THE IMPRV DURG THIS TIME...W/ M SUN XPCTD TUE. LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF STATES WED MAY SPREAD CLDS INTO THE MID ATLC BUT POP CHCS WL BE LOW - BEST IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY. ONCE THE LOW REACHES THE SE CST IT IS XPCTD TO TRACK SLOWLY NE TOWARD HAT THU. THIS WL BRING ABT A BETTER CHC FOR RA TO THE FCST AREA. QPF WOULD BE LOW. THE WK AHD WL SEE HIGH TEMPS AOB THE L70 LATE APR CLIMO NORMS. LOOKING DEEP INTO THE CRYSTAL BALL IT LOOKS LK WARMING COULD OCCUR THE FOLLOWING WK. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH WINDS 5-10KT. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRB TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NW MONDAY 15 KT GUST 20 TO 25 KT. HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA MON NGT THRU WED. NO CONCERNS XPCTD AVIATION-WISE. LOW PRES TRACKING TO THE S MAY CAUSE DEGRADATION IN CIGS THU.
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&& .MARINE...
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NORTH FLOW CONTINUES. WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT NW LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASE...SCA FOR ALL WATERS MONDAY 15-20 KT WITH 25 KT GUSTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVSRY CONDS LKLY MON NGT AND TUE.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>543. && $$ NEAR TERM...AVIATION AND MARINE UPDATES...KCS

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