Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 021831 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 231 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY DURING MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AFTN CU...HIGHS IN THE LM70S...LGT WINDS...A VERY PLSNT WAY TO BEGIN MAY. THE CU SHOULD CLR OUT ARND SUNSET W/ THE HIGH MOVG OVR THE RGN. W/ THE XCPTN OF THE CITIES AM GOING ON THE LOW END OF TEMPS OVRNGT - MU30S IN THE HIGHLANDS...MU40S MAJORITY OF THE CWA...LM50S IN THE CITIES. PATCHY FOG PSBL IN THE SHEN VLLY/I-81. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... AND A PLSNT SUNDAY IS ON THE WAY AS WELL W/ HIGH PRES OVRHD. HIGHS IN THE U70S/L80S OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL POSITION ITSELF EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LEADING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE WARMEST FEW DAYS WE HAVE HAD SO FAR THIS YEAR. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH TERRAIN FORCING AND INCREASING HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING IT. COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE TUES NIGHT INTO WED MORNING BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND STALLS CLOSE TO OUR CWA THROUGH SAT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OFF THE SE COAST AND LIMITS IT FROM MOVING FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH SAT WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY. WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WED THROUGH FRI WITH MAX TEMPS APPROX 10 TO 15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE...REACHING THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MAINLY VFR SUN NIGHT-TUE. SWLY FLOW AROUND 10 KT. GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT...WITH PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHOWERS/TSTMS. && .MARINE... WINDS BLO SCA VALUE TNGT AND SUNDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS PSBL WED AND THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY CONTAIN ELEVATED WATER LEVELS. HOWEVER...WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH TODAY...CURRENT FEELING IS THAT WATER LEVELS SHOULD BE BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. && CLIMATE... ONE OF THE WARMEST AIRMASSES SO FAR THIS YEAR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. BELOW IS A LIST OF THE LAST TIME A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES OR HIGHER WAS OBSERVED. SITE..LAST 85+ DEGREE DAY... DCA...SEPTEMBER 27TH 2014... BWI...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014... IAD...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014... CHO...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014... DMH...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014... HGR...SEPTEMBER 6TH 2014.... MRB...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014... .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ PRODUCTS...WOODY!/DFH/IMR

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