Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 030101 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 901 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO BERMUDA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY DURING MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... ONLY HAZARDOUS WX CONCERN IS ELEVATED WATER...SEE COASTAL FLOOD SECTION BELOW. AS OF 00Z...1019MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER FAR SRN WV WITH LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AFTERNOON STRATOCU ARE CLEARING OUT...CRYSTAL CLEAR OVERNIGHT EXPECTED. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MERELY DRIFT TO CNTRL NC THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MID TO UPR 40S INLAND LOWER ELEVATIONS...INVERSION FOR RIDGES AND LOW TO MID 50S FOR URBAN/NEARSHORE LOCALES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... AND A PLSNT SUNDAY IS ON THE WAY AS WELL W/ HIGH PRES OVRHD. HIGHS IN THE U70S/L80S OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVS. JUST AFTERNOON FAIR CU AND A LIGHT WLY FLOW. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL POSITION ITSELF EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LEADING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE WARMEST FEW DAYS WE HAVE HAD SO FAR THIS YEAR. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH TERRAIN FORCING AND INCREASING HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING IT. COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE TUES NIGHT INTO WED MORNING BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND STALLS CLOSE TO OUR CWA THROUGH SAT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OFF THE SE COAST AND LIMITS IT FROM MOVING FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH SAT WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY. WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WED THROUGH FRI WITH MAX TEMPS APPROX 10 TO 15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE...REACHING THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR PREVAILS THROUGH TUE. LIGHT WLY FLOW CALMS LATE THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT NWLY FLOW BECOMING SWLY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER BAY BREEZE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT...WITH PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHOWERS/TSTMS. && .MARINE... SLY FLOW TO 10 KT UP THE BAY FROM A BAY BREEZE WEAKENS TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WLY FLOW SUNDAY BECOMES SWLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS PSBL WED AND THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WATER LEVELS 0.8 OR 0.9 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTION WITH FULL MOON MONDAY. NO COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE LESSER HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER EAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE HIGH TIDE LATE TONIGHT WILL APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT THE SENSITIVE SITES. FOR INSTANCE...ANNAPOLIS WOULD NEED A DEPARTURE OF 0.85 TO HIT THEIR MINOR CRITERIA OF 2.4 FT. AT HIGH TIDE AROUND 5:30AM. HOWEVER...THE DEPARTURE NEAR 9PM IS 0.83 AND DROPPING. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT NO COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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