Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 031813 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 213 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL BUILD TOWARD BERMUDA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY DURING MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... HIGH PRES MOVG OFF THE CAROLINA CST. THIS WL ALLOW THE WINDS...ALTHO LGT...TO SHIFT TO A SRLY DIRECTION OVRNGT...AND BRINGING A WARMER NGT TO THE MID ATLC AS WELL. LAST NGT HIGHLAND CNTY GOT DOWN TO 30 DEGS...WHILE DC/BALT BOTH DROPPED TO 56. TNGT`S LOWS WL BE IN THE M40S IN THE HIGHLANDS...L60S IN THE CITIES. MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA WL DROP TO THE U40S/L50S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... AND MON WL BE THE WARMEST DAY THE AREA HAS XPRNCD SINCE LAST SEP (SEE CLIMATE SXN BLO). HIGHS XPCTD TO REACH THE LM80S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE STATIONED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A WARMING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WANDERING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF DECAYING UPSTREAM CONVECTION...SO SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE JET/SHORTWAVE FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA...SO SURFACE FRONTAL AND TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS WILL BE THE FOCUS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING. THUS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED UNLESS A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS UPSTREAM AND FINDS ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING /LOW PROBABILITY/. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHUT OFF PRETTY QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE CYCLE REPEATS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AS THE FRONT DROPS THROUGH. COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH STALLS CLOSE TO OUR CWA ON WED...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THURS. COLD FRONT THEN LIFTS NE AS A WARM FRONT SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND FRONT. UPSLOPING FACTOR FROM THE EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT FOR THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. ALSO...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OFF THE SE COAST... AND DEPENDING ON THE PATH AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IF IT PUSHES FAR ENOUGH NORTH...IT COULD BRING PRECIP TO THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR SUN ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...REACHING THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDS XPCTD TNGT AND MON. AFTN CONSIDERATION WL BE THE WINDS AT DCA AND BWI. DCA HAS BEEN XPRNCG A SERLY BRZ UP THE PTMC...WHILE BWI HAS A WRLY WIND. SFC OBS SHOW A BAY BRZ IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE WRN SHORE. MDLS SHOW THAT BRZ TRACKING WWD AND CAUSING A SHIFT AT BWI ARND 21Z...BUT BWI TDWR IS NOT SHOWING MUCH WWD PROGRESSION OF THE BRZ SO THE TAF MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED MON NGT-TUE AM W/ AOB 10 KT. PSBL BRIEF/SPOTTY SUB-VFR TUE AFT-EVE AND AGAIN WED AFT-EVE IN SCTD SHWR/ISO TSTM. SWLY FLOW AOB 10 KT BECOME NLY WED AS FRONT DROPS THROUGH. GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT... WITH PSBL SUB-VFR CONSITIONS DUE TO SHOWERS/TSTMS. && .MARINE... WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TNGT AND MON. SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCA GUSTS MONDAY NIGHT. SCA ISSUED FOR THIS TIME. GUSTS COULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE AREA WEAKENING THE GRADIENT INTO WEDNESDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS PSBL THURS AND FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && CLIMATE... ONE OF THE WARMEST AIRMASSES SO FAR THIS YEAR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. BELOW IS A LIST OF THE LAST TIME A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES OR HIGHER WAS OBSERVED. SITE..LAST 85+ DEGREE DAY... DCA...SEPTEMBER 27TH 2014... BWI...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014... IAD...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014... CHO...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014... DMH...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014... HGR...SEPTEMBER 6TH 2014.... MRB...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014... && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>543. && $$ PRODUCTS...WOODY!/DFH/IMR

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