Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
FXUS64 KMAF 021740
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1240 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015
Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.
VFR conditions with breezy southeast winds will continue for the
next 24 hours. Late tonight, gusts will diminish, but winds will
increase once again by late Sunday morning.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT Sat May 2 2015/
Another nice day expected today under the influence of weak upper
ridging aloft. Expect sunny skies and afternoon high temperatures
in the mid 80s most places. Southeast winds will be a bit breezy
this afternoon as the surface pressure gradient tightens in
response to a surface trough strengthening lee of the Rockies.
Upper ridging will shift east overnight tonight while a Pacific
upper trough slowly approaches the SW ConUS, resulting in SW flow
aloft by Sunday afternoon. The dryline looks to sharpen from the
western Permian Basin south to the Big Bend region on Sunday with
dewpoints in the low/mid 50s across far eastern zones. Could see
some weak disturbances move over the region in SW flow aloft,
providing some weak forcing for ascent during this time so will
continue mention of at least isolated thunderstorms possible
near/along the dryline.
The main focus for this forecast package is the Monday through
Tuesday timeframe with the potential of severe weather and flooding
affecting portions of the CWA. The Pacific ua trough will enter the
SW ConUS overnight Sunday then moving east through the Desert SW
through the beginning of the week. Meanwhile, moderate SE winds at
the surface will continue pumping low level moisture into the
region. Model guidance has been consistent in showing PWATS just
above 1" Monday increasing to near 1.25" Monday night. The dryline
will be a little farther west on Monday, sharpening up near SE NM
south just east of the Davis Mtn region. Models indicate a weak
upper disturbance moving overhead in SW flow aloft, and with
sufficient heating and ample moisture, dryline thunderstorms are
possible during the late afternoon/evening hours Monday.
Convective activity looks to increase and persist overnight,
particularly across the northern half of the CWA, as greatest
upper forcing arrives and nocturnal LLJ sustains LL moisture.
Storms could be strong to severe, producing large hail and
damaging winds. In addition, given the potential amount of
available moisture, heavy rain could definitely result in a flash
flooding threat particularly overnight Monday into Tuesday
morning. Will continue to mention flash flooding threat in the HWO
but may need to consider issuing a Flash Flood Watch soon. Could
see dryline thunderstorms once again Tuesday afternoon, given the
atmosphere can recover from Monday night...
Wednesday, model solutions indicate dryline thunderstorms once again
despite the exiting ua trough, somewhat depleted moisture and no
significant upper forcing depicted. We could end up getting an upper
weakness come across in SW flow aloft so kept at least slight
chances mentioned for now across eastern zones. The dryline looks to
meander back and forth across eastern half of the CWA through the
end of the week and maybe even into the weekend with the chance for
thunderstorms continuing through Saturday.
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