Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 241739
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1239 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is BLDU possibly
affecting terminals this afternoon. Currently have west winds
rapidly increasing at CNM, PEQ and HOB early this afternoon. Expect
all terminals to maintain gusty west winds through at least 25/00Z
this evening. Best chances for areas of BLDU will be at CNM, HOB,
PEQ and maybe even INK where occasional MVFR vis may occur. Gusts
are expected to subside later this evening. At the moment, all
convective activity remains east of terminals however some high res
models indicate TSRA developing near MAF and FST later this
afternoon as the dryline pushes east. Confidence is too low attm to
add mention but will continue to monitor and amend if/when needed.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015/

UPDATE...
Thunderstorms continue over Eastern Permian Basin.

DISCUSSION...
Dry air slower to move across the region and thunderstorms
continue to track across Eastern Permian Basin. Have updated
forecast to push storms into the afternoon and increase pops.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A large upper trough to our west is finally beginning to lift
northeast over northern Mexico this morning. A disturbance in the
southwesterly flow aloft along with the subtropical jet is providing
enough lift for showers and even a few thunderstorms across the
region currently. This activity will continue to move east and
should clear the region by early afternoon. Meanwhile...the base of
the upper trough will lift into the Southern Plains and send a belt
of strong mid level winds across the area. Some of this wind is
likely to mix to the sfc given subsidence and clearing skies behind
this mornings disturbance. The strongest winds are expected to be
roughly along and north of I-20. Will issue a Wind Advisory for much
of this area with winds expected to increase to 25 to 35 mph during
the afternoon. A High Wind Warning is also in effect for the
Guadalupe Mountains until this evening. Strong winds will likely
kick up some blowing dust and this may locally lower visibilities.
One bit of good news, temperatures today will be near to slightly
below normal which should help keep fire weather conditions from
getting too high. See fire wx discussion below for more information.

A more zonal flow develops over the region to start the weekend
ahead of a storm system expected to dig across the Intermountain
West. Look for windy and warm conditions to continue Saturday and
Sunday before the upper system arrives Monday. More wind products
will likely be needed for parts of the region this weekend. Models
differ a bit on the track of the low across Texas but do agree on a
cold front set to arrive Monday. Much cooler temperatures can be
expected behind the front with highs 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
The best rain chances associated with this system will stay to our
north and east for now unless its track changes.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns will increase today as southwest to west winds
rise to 25 to 35 mph sustained generally along and west of a Lamesa
to Kermit to Pecos and Alpine line.  To the east of this line, wind
speeds are expected to be 15 to 25 mph sustained.  Stronger winds
will affect the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Warning is in
effect.  RH/s will drop to 10 to 15 percent in these areas, except
in the Guadalupe Mtns where RH/s may struggle to drop below 15
percent.  Since high temperatures will be near normal, most of these
locations had good rainfall and vegetation has greened up, and ERCs
are less then 40, think this will not be a high end fire weather
event and a Red Flag Warning is not warranted.  A few locations will
likely meet criteria of less than 15 percent RH and wind speeds of
20 mph sustained for a few hours, but think we would need much
warmer temperatures and much drier fuels for a more threatening
situation.  Therefore, we will opt to issue a Fire Danger Statement
for locations along and west of a Lamesa to Kermit to Alpine line
this afternoon and evening.  Winds should subside around sundown and
alleviate fire weather concerns.

Recovery tonight will be fair in most locations, with elevated fire
weather conditions expected over much of the forecast area on
Saturday.  Only marginal critical fire weather conditions are
expected though due to near normal high temperatures, green
vegetation and low ERC, so a Fire Weather Watch will not be issued.
More windy conditions are expected Sunday as an upper storm system
begins to pass by just north of the region.  Since we are still
expecting minimum afternoon RH/s above 10 percent and high
temperatures near normal, only elevated fire weather conditions are
expected again.  A cold front will move into the area Monday and
help alleviate fire weather concerns.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...
     Gaines...Loving...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Winkler.


&&

$$

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