Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 162156
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
456 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015

.UPDATE...
Updated the forecast for Severe Thunderstorm Watch #62

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms developed in the western low rolling plains which
became strong to severe. The threat for more will continue into
this evening so a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued. Other
storms have developed along the Pecos River and though there is
no watch in this area, cannot rule out the possibility that one or
two of these storms could go severe.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 151 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another warm day underway today with the potential of severe storms
across eastern zones this afternoon as a dryline sharpens somewhere
near a Lamesa to Midland to just east of Fort Stockton line. An
upper low remains anchored near the Four Corners region today and
may provide some weak upper forcing for ascent to aid in
thunderstorm development. Already seeing CU field developing along
with light radar returns across the eastern PB south into the Lower
Trans Pecos. East of the dryline, 1830Z SPC meso analysis shows
dewpoints in the 50s, CAPE values greater than 2000 J/kg and mid
level LRs aoa 7.5 C/km. Storm mode will likely be supercells
capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and possibly an
isolated tornado. Much of the Permian Basin south through the
Lower Trans Pecos remains highlighted in a Slight Risk as of this
afternoon. There is a possibility the dryline will push east out
of the CWA before severe weather occurs but will just have to wait
and see. In addition, not really anticipating any showers/storms
out west over the higher terrain and SE NM however if one or two
happen to develop this afternoon, gusty winds and little rain can
be expected.

Overnight, models indicate a Pacific front advancing east through
the region, colliding with the retreating dryline around midnight.
This could potentially generate thunderstorms once again across the
eastern half of the CWA early Friday morning through afternoon as
the front pushes east. If this is the case, storms could be strong
to severe given the indicated moisture/instability east of the
boundary.

The upper low will begin to move NE toward the Central Plains Friday
with westerly flow developing aloft through Saturday. The dryline
will hang around far eastern zones Saturday but it looks like we
could potentially see an isolated storm or two before the dryline is
east of the FA. Expect high temps in the upper 70s to near 80
through the weekend however a weak cold front Sunday will cool temps
a couple of degrees for Monday. A brief period of dry conditions
Sunday and Monday before thunderstorm chances return mid week as
upper disturbances move overhead in westerly flow aloft and the
dryline sets up across the region once again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 53  77  49  78  /  30  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              58  80  53  81  /  50  30  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                45  75  44  78  /  10  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  61  84  59  84  /  30  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           53  80  53  81  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          44  68  46  69  /  10   0  10   0
HOBBS NM                   46  74  44  75  /  20  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   43  72  41  72  /  10   0  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  79  51  80  /  40  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                  56  79  51  79  /  30  10  10  10
WINK TX                    50  80  46  81  /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/12

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