Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
FXUS64 KMAF 250135
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
835 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015
Latest obs show winds beginning to diminish/decouple, and we`ll
freshen up the grids to remove the expired wind advisory. We`ll
also update other parameters as necessary based on latest
obs/model data. KGDP is still banging away at 37G44KT, and we`ll
update again when the warning expires at 03Z. Updates out shortly.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 150 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015/
A strong shortwave trough swung across NM this morning and was
moving across W TX this afternoon. This trough has helped to
produce some thunderstorms today. Will have a brief pause after
this trough before another upper trough dives across NV to AZ
Saturday before swinging into NM on Sunday. Look for upper ridging
by the middle of next week.
Had some showers and storms develop across the Permian Basin this
morning that continued into the afternoon. Some of these storms had
brief heavy rain with minor street flooding reported in Midland and
also possible occurring in Big Spring... Snyder... and Colorado City.
As of early afternoon widespread cloud cover clearing from west to
east with stronger winds aloft mixing down to the surface. Have cut
back on the coverage of blowing dust this afternoon but left it
across SE NM. As a surface trough/dryline moves across the area the
wind will come around to the W/SW behind it. A Wind Advisory is in
effect the rest of the afternoon west of a Fort Davis to Lamesa line
with a High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains. Wind speeds
should drop off after sunset. Could see border line high wind
conditions in the Guadalupes Saturday and Sunday afternoon but not
planning on issuing a warning at this time.
The west wind will continue Saturday and Sunday with highs in the
80s. The next cold front moves through Monday with highs falling
back into the 70s for the first of the week with 80s returning by
the end of next week. Lows mostly in the 50s through Monday.
Expect current storms will be east of the area by this evening with
none expected over the weekend. Storms creep back into the forecast
Sunday night and continue through Monday night along and behind the
front. The remainder of the forecast is dry.
Elevated fire weather conditions developing across SE NM and western
portions of west TX this afternoon with strong west winds and
warming temperatures. A Fire Danger Statement remains in effect for
these areas through early evening, at which point winds diminish and
fire weather conditions improve. Still expect fair overnight RH
recoveries most locations followed by another day of elevated fire
weather concerns Saturday afternoon. Although minimum RH`s and winds
look good for near critical fire weather conditions, local reports
indicate vegetation is too green to warrant a Fire Weather Watch.
Much of the same expected Sunday before a cold front moves through
Monday, alleviating fire weather concerns through at least mid week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 52 83 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 54 86 54 87 / 0 0 0 10
CARLSBAD NM 51 82 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 56 89 57 89 / 0 0 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 52 85 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 47 72 50 67 / 0 0 0 10
HOBBS NM 48 80 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 38 76 42 76 / 0 0 0 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 54 84 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 53 82 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 52 84 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.
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