Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 020532

1232 AM CDT Sat May 2 2015



Conditions will remain VFR with some increase in high clouds.
South wind should slowly drop off in speed overnight but then will
become gusty during the afternoon.




WV imagery shows an upper level ridge over the SW CONUS, leaving
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under light meridional flow
aloft.  This has resulted in a sunny afternoon w/near-normal
temperatures across the region.  A few cu are trying to get going
over the Davis Mtns...but struggling.

Overnight, the upper ridge will shift east in response to a trough
approaching the west coast, while at the sfc, return flow will begin
priming the PBL w/increased moisture.  This should make for a day
similar to today`s.  Sunday, w/the ridge east of the area, a weak
dryline is forecast to sharpen up mid-CWA under SW flow aloft,
w/models in good agreement in initiating convection along the
dryline Sunday afternoon and night as a shortwave moves thru the

Monday, the upper trough makes landfall on the west coast,
w/large-scale ascent commencing ahead of this feature under strong
height falls, w/rain chances increasing into Monday night.  Forecast
soundings depict a modest cap during the day Monday, but forcing
ahead of the trough should be enough to overcome this.  Monday
night, things get interesting as a 50+kt LLJ develops over the
Permian Basin.  Forecast soundings at KMAF increase PWATs to near
1.5"...which falls w/in the climatological maximum for this time of
year.  Both the GFS and ECMWF advertise pretty healthy QPFs from a
MCS-type feature, but forecast storm motions of 20-25 kts should mitigate
flash flood potential somewhat.  Still, models are in enough
agreement on timing/placement of QPF to mention heavy rainfall in
the grids for the Wrn Low Rolling Plains/Permian basin Monday
night.  If this remains consistent over the next few days/runs, a
Flash Flood Watch may be necessary.  For now, besides the grids,
we`ll mention this in the HWO.  Another concern Monday night will be
tornadoes.  Both the GFS and ECMWF develop a swath of 0-3km SR
helicity well in excess of 150 m2/s2 on the leading edge of the
trough and bring it right thru the Permian Basin/Wrn Low Rolling
Plains Monday night.  0-1km SRH looks impressive as well.
W/forecast soundings pretty much saturated by 06Z Tuesday, LCLs will
be under 2500` AGL.  However, this is still a ways out, and we`d
like to see a couple more runs of this before mentioning it in the

Otherwise, the trough exits the area Tuesday, w/chances of
convection tapering off to the east.  Temps will be below normal
Tuesday, but recover during the week to near-normal by Friday under
SW flow aloft.  Models develop a dryline each afternoon, for a
chance of convection each day ern zones.





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