Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 020532
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1232 AM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Conditions will remain VFR with some increase in high clouds.
South wind should slowly drop off in speed overnight but then will
become gusty during the afternoon.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT Fri May 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper level ridge over the SW CONUS, leaving
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under light meridional flow
aloft.  This has resulted in a sunny afternoon w/near-normal
temperatures across the region.  A few cu are trying to get going
over the Davis Mtns...but struggling.

Overnight, the upper ridge will shift east in response to a trough
approaching the west coast, while at the sfc, return flow will begin
priming the PBL w/increased moisture.  This should make for a day
similar to today`s.  Sunday, w/the ridge east of the area, a weak
dryline is forecast to sharpen up mid-CWA under SW flow aloft,
w/models in good agreement in initiating convection along the
dryline Sunday afternoon and night as a shortwave moves thru the
flow.

Monday, the upper trough makes landfall on the west coast,
w/large-scale ascent commencing ahead of this feature under strong
height falls, w/rain chances increasing into Monday night.  Forecast
soundings depict a modest cap during the day Monday, but forcing
ahead of the trough should be enough to overcome this.  Monday
night, things get interesting as a 50+kt LLJ develops over the
Permian Basin.  Forecast soundings at KMAF increase PWATs to near
1.5"...which falls w/in the climatological maximum for this time of
year.  Both the GFS and ECMWF advertise pretty healthy QPFs from a
MCS-type feature, but forecast storm motions of 20-25 kts should mitigate
flash flood potential somewhat.  Still, models are in enough
agreement on timing/placement of QPF to mention heavy rainfall in
the grids for the Wrn Low Rolling Plains/Permian basin Monday
night.  If this remains consistent over the next few days/runs, a
Flash Flood Watch may be necessary.  For now, besides the grids,
we`ll mention this in the HWO.  Another concern Monday night will be
tornadoes.  Both the GFS and ECMWF develop a swath of 0-3km SR
helicity well in excess of 150 m2/s2 on the leading edge of the
trough and bring it right thru the Permian Basin/Wrn Low Rolling
Plains Monday night.  0-1km SRH looks impressive as well.
W/forecast soundings pretty much saturated by 06Z Tuesday, LCLs will
be under 2500` AGL.  However, this is still a ways out, and we`d
like to see a couple more runs of this before mentioning it in the
HWO.

Otherwise, the trough exits the area Tuesday, w/chances of
convection tapering off to the east.  Temps will be below normal
Tuesday, but recover during the week to near-normal by Friday under
SW flow aloft.  Models develop a dryline each afternoon, for a
chance of convection each day ern zones.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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