Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 301108
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
608 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR and light south winds to continue this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Light winds, clear skies and cool surface ridging in place once
again tonight however low temps will not be quite as cool as last
night. May see a light freeze near the Davis Mtns and Marfa Plateau
by sunrise. Southerly flow will become much more established across
the region by this afternoon as the surface ridge continues to move
east and a surface lee trough strengthens into eastern NM. The
warming trend will continue today with highs generally near or above
80 most locations.

Upper ridging will begin to move overhead Friday and the warming
trend will continue with above normals temps expected through the
weekend. Many locations will reach or exceed 90 degrees Sunday
afternoon. Most areas will remain dry through Saturday however there
is some indication that upslope flow Saturday afternoon may result
in some isolated convection over the Davis Mtn region. For now,
decided to leave mention out of the forecast due to lack of
moisture. Upper ridging will begin to flatten and shift east Sunday
while a Pacific upper low enters the SW ConUS, leaving SE NM and
W TX under SW flow aloft headed into next week. The dryline looks to
return this weekend but very little moisture return leave
thunderstorm chances low to nil attm.

Thunderstorm chances begin to increase Monday as the upper low
approaches, spreading upper forcing for ascent across the region.
Will continue to see moisture increase Monday night as the dryline
retreats west toward eastern NM. Tuesday looks to be the best day
for dryline thunderstorms with ample available moisture (PWATS
greater than 1 inch) and greatest upper forcing. Attm, it looks as
though Tuesday could be a good candidate for severe weather and will
continue to monitor the possibility. As the dryline retreats
Tuesday night, thunderstorms may persist overnight with the help
of a present LLJ. Upper forcing will decrease Wednesday with the
departing upper low and precip chances will diminish from west to
east.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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