Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 151731
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A well mixed atmosphere will result in some gusty winds this PM. Mostly
s winds this PM and overnight, with stronger winds at FST, 15-20kts.
Main concern for the overnight is the potential for high based TSRA.
Model QPF continues to suggest tstms will develop and move e-ne. Have
opted to included PROB30 groups at PEQ/INK/HOB/CNM from 03Z-09Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, with
light south winds this morning increasing this afternoon to around
12KT, with some gusts to 18-20KT possible. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through tonight for
much of the area, but have not included mention in TAFs at this
time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Watching a fast approaching upper low diving out of the NW across
the Intermountain West.  This low will wobble as it drops south
across CO and NM and brings a chance of storms to the region.  This
low will spin over NM Thursday through Saturday before weakening
and lifting east Saturday night.  On Sunday look for weak high
pressure aloft to begin to return to the area.

Will start the morning off with clear skies for nearly all of W TX
and SE NM.  Have been keeping an eye on possible fog developing this
morning but so far have not seen any.  Have dewpts in the 40s for
most of the region this morning... depending what model you believe
these will increase into the 50s or 60s in the next 24 hrs so should
be enough for storm development.  Temps will be warmer today with
abundant sunshine... highs today and Thursday will be in the 70s
and 80s. The next weak cold front looks to be a little slower and
not expected to move through until late Friday but should only be
a little cooler.  Look for temps to slowly increase through the
extended.

Looking at the potential of severe wx over the next several days.
Thunderstorm chances return to the forecast today and increase
tonight.  Pops continue mainly for the east through Saturday night.
The latest SWODY1 leaves the Permian Basin... Lower Trans Pecos...
and Big Bend/Marfa Plateau in a marginal risk of severe today and
tonight with the better chance being tonight.  Will have some of the
needed ingredients for severe wx such as an approaching upper low...
daytime heating... and decent moisture... but others features such
as a good surface focus look to be lacking.  Orographic lift may be
enough to get storms started but upslope flow not strong.  Will
have enough shear that if storms get started could see a supercell
storm or two.  Thursday looks to be the bigger severe wx day and
SWODY2 has a slight risk east of a Seminole to Fort Stockton line
for storms possibly developing along a dryline.  These storms may
actual be during the evening as the dryline retreats westward.
Will highlight severe threat in the HWO.  With a cut off low just
west of the area will have potential for severe wx continuing
Friday and Saturday.  After the low moves east will have a couple
days of quiet wx before storm chances begin to creep back into the
forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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