Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 011126

626 AM CDT Fri May 1 2015



VFR conditions with a few mid clouds expected. Otherwise the wind
will be southerly and may be a little gusty in the afternoon.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT Fri May 1 2015/

Above normal temperatures will continue for the next several days
under the influence of upper ridging aloft. Surface lee troughing
will persist through the weekend, resulting in moderate SSE flow
and a slow increase in low level moisture through the beginning of
next week. Conditions will remain dry for most areas through
Saturday then thunderstorm chances return to the FA by the end of
the weekend.

Upper ridging will begin to flatten and shift east Sunday while a
Pacific upper low enters the SW ConUS, leaving SE NM and W TX under
SW flow aloft headed into next week. The dryline looks to sharpen
across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos on Sunday with
dewpoints in the low/mid 50s across far eastern zones. Could see
some weak disturbances move over the region in SW flow aloft,
providing some weak forcing for ascent during this time. Although
higher dewpoints (pushing 60) would be ideal, think at least mention
of a slight chance is warranted attm.

Confidence continues to increase that thunderstorms will affect
the area Monday and Tuesday as the upper low approaches, spreading
upper forcing for ascent across the region. Meanwhile, will
continue to see moisture increase east of the dryline, with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s and PWATS well above 1 inch by
Tuesday. Dryline thunderstorms look possible Monday afternoon and
evening then convection looks to persist overnight as greatest
upper forcing arrives Tuesday morning. Dryline thunderstorms once
again Tuesday afternoon before upper forcing moves east of the
region. Each afternoon, models indicate CAPE values near 1500 J/kg
(potentially higher Tuesday), mid-level LRs 7-8 C/km and 0-6km bulk
shear of 40-50kt at times, supporting the potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms producing large hail and strong winds. In
addition, given the amount of available moisture, heavy rain
potential could lead to areas of localized flash flooding.
Wednesday and Thursday, long term solutions indicate dryline
thunderstorms across far eastern zones each day and with SW flow
aloft persisting, think scenario is plausible with any passing





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