Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 152302

602 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015

See 00Z aviation discussion below.


Scattered showers are developing across the area this afternoon
but there is not much instability so lightning remains isolated.
Therefore will carry -SHRA in the TAFs and amend to TS if a
stronger cell heads toward one of the sites. VFR conditions
expected through the period.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015/

Much warmer today, thanks to abundant sunshine and the return of
southerly flow. Most locations should reach near 80 by the end of
daytime heating later this afternoon. An upper low continues to move
toward the four corners region today resulting in SW flow aloft over
SE NM and W TX. CU quickly developing across SW zones and Davis
mountain region with some light echos showing up on radar. This is
due to a number of things... good daytime heating near the surface
trough axis, upper forcing for ascent from a piece of energy moving
around the southern periphery of the upper low, decent mid level
moisture and estimated mid level LRs near 7 C/km. Expect this
activity to continue to develop near the higher terrain this
afternoon and move east over adjacent plains through this evening
where better moisture/instability will reside. Strong to severe
storms will be possible with hail and strong winds the main threats.
LLJ develops tonight across eastern half of CWA, increasing low level
moisture and instability, which may help maintain thunderstorms
overnight and into Thursday morning. Will continue highest chances
across the east overnight.

Another warm day expected Thursday with a pretty decent shot at
severe storms generally across the easter half of the CWA
during the late afternoon/evening timeframe. The upper low will
meander a little closer on Thursday with some weak upper forcing
increasing over the region through the day. Meanwhile, a
well-defined dryline will set up across the east by the afternoon
hours, serving as a focus for convective initiation. Models continue
to show good low level moisture, CAPE values around 1500-2500 J/kg
and mid level LRs aoa 7 C/km so the potential for strong to severe
storms still looks good with large hail, strong winds and possibly
an isolated tornado. Eastern zones remain highlighted in a slight
risk so will go ahead and include mention of severe storms in the
grids. Otherwise, thunderstorms will likely continue into the
overnight hours as the dryline retreats back west.

The upper low will slowly begin to move eastward Friday and
eventually make its way into the Central Plains by the weekend. The
advancing/retreating dryline will hang around Friday and Saturday
and thunderstorm chances will continue for eastern portions of the
region through Saturday. The GFS is no longer advertising a cold
front on Friday and has come more in line with the
NAM/ECMWF/Canadian with high temps near 80 most locations. Beyond
Saturday, precip chances will diminish as dry, westerly flow
develops aloft. A dry, weak cold front will sink south into the
region Sunday night, resulting in slightly cooler temps Monday. Rain
chances return to the forecast Tuesday but will only hold onto
slight chances attm.

Fire wx concerns do increase into Sat, but mainly across the far w
where fuels haven`t transitioned to green. Soundings for Thur
indicate RF wx will be most likely in NW reaches of GDP Mtns into
Dunken, farther SE in GDP NP it will be difficult to hit RF wx for
3hrs, mainly due to RH. A few storms may develop within the dry air
Thursday across the southeast plains, western Basin, and Trans
Pecos increaing potential for dry lightning. Upper low will be the n
Fri, but the stronger wind fields will have passed Thursday leaving
dry air in place. Dry air will push into the Basin, but fuels are
mostly green. In the extended any potential for critical fire wx
will remain confined to the GDP Mtns (and low end at that) where the
dry air will mostly persist. Robust winds fields cannot materialize
with upper systems taking such far swd tracks.






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