Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 220914
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
414 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

An upper trough currently to our west will bring a variety of
weather concerns over the next several days including thunderstorms
and high fire danger. Southwesterly flow aloft along with a lee
sfc trough has allowed for strong low-level southerly flow and Gulf
moisture to advance west across the region this morning. Dewpoints
have risen into the upper 50`s as far north as the Permian Basin and
west to the Pecos River. Low clouds have also developed helping
keep temperatures mainly in the 60`s this morning.

An embedded disturbance in the mid level flow will move across the
Southern Plains today. This along with strong mixing will cause the
dryline to surge east this afternoon. Meanwhile, the above
disturbance will help initiate thunderstorms along a southward
moving cold front over the TX Panhandle later today. Some of these
storms may impact the Western Low Rolling Plains this evening.
Strong instability and shear will be available if storms are able to
form or move into this area. For now will keep isolated PoPs in and
monitor what happens to our north throughout the day.

The upper trough will begin to lift northeast late Thursday, moving
just north of our region Friday. A few showers and thunderstorms
will be possible late Thursday into early Friday morning...however
they won`t have much in the way of low level moisture to work with.
By Friday afternoon, strong westerly winds are expected to develop
over most of the region as a sfc low intensifies over SE CO. These
winds combined with warm temperatures and low rh`s will cause very
high fire danger. See fire weather discussion below. The strong
winds will also likely cause areas of blowing dust which may lower
visibilities during the afternoon.

Temperatures will warm into the 80`s to near 90 today and expect
similar conditions to round out the week. Models diverge a bit w.r.t
the upper pattern this weekend into next week, but do agree in a
cool down by the middle of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A surface trough set to develop over the South Plains today will
veer 20` winds to the west, advecting PBL moisture east and
resulting in 5-10% afternoon RH`s west of a dryline forecast to
extend from Snyder to Sanderson by late afternoon.  Out west,
forecast soundings for KGDP mix to around 7H, where SW 20-30kt flow
is forecast.  These increased winds should affect mainly ridgetops
of the Guadalupe`s and Delawares extending down into TXZ057.  W/very
high to extreme Fire danger anticipated, and max RFTIs of 7, we will
issue a Red Flag Warning for those areas.  In the Southeast New
Mexico Plains, 20` winds do not look to meet criteria, so it will be
dropped from the current Watch.

Thursday, temps RHs will be a little higher due to anticipated
cooler temperatures and a chance of convection, although leeside
troughing over the front range will result in SW 20` winds that will
likely exceed 20 mph over the western fire zones.  Attm, forecast
RFTIs look to be low, and Thursday looks like a good candidate for a
RFD.

Friday, however, begins a string of likely critical fire weather
days, extending possibly through Tuesday, as an upper-lvl trough
passes just north of the FA Friday, followed by another on Sunday
night.  By Friday, unless significant wetting rains occur Thu/Thu
night, primed and low fuel moistures should result in very high to
extreme Fire Danger over much of the FA, especially west.  Leeside
troughing in advance of the aforementioned troughs will maintain
SW-W 20` winds, and thus low RHs each afternoon and poor recovery
each night.  For now, we`ll issue a Fire Weather Watch for Friday
covering the same areas as the current watch.  Areas affected Friday
afternoon will likely extend east and south of the watch area, but
to avoid complicating things, we`d prefer to restrict the watch to
the current areas, and models differ somewhat on the extent of
critical fire wx criteria.  Upgraded warnings/watches will likely
continue into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 86  54  84  57  /   0  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              88  58  86  61  /  10  10  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                85  50  83  55  /   0  10  10  20
DRYDEN TX                  91  63  91  64  /  10  10  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           89  58  85  59  /   0  10  10  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          77  53  73  49  /   0   0  10  10
HOBBS NM                   81  50  82  51  /   0  10  10  20
MARFA TX                   79  46  75  49  /   0  10  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    88  56  85  60  /  10  10  10  20
ODESSA TX                  86  57  85  61  /   0  10  10  20
WINK TX                    90  51  88  55  /   0  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday morning through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday morning through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

44/29

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