Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
AXUS74 KMAF 232034
DGTMAF
NMC015-025-TXC003-033-043-103-109-115-135-165-173-227-243-301-317-
329-335-371-377-383-389-415-443-461-475-495-231315-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015 /500 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015/

...DROUGHT INFORMATION FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...

SYNOPSIS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM), ISSUED IN PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER, USDA, AND NWS ON 3 MARCH, SHOWS
DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE WORSENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST MONTH ACROSS
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.  IN WEST TEXAS, EXTREME
SOUTHEAST TERRELL COUNTY HAD DEVELOPED INTO SEVERE DROUGHT.  IMPACTS
OF SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS INCLUDE LIKELY CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES,
WATER SHORTAGES, AND WATER RESTRICTIONS.  CENTRAL TERRELL, EASTERN
SCURRY, MOST OF MITCHELL, AND ALL OF GLASSCOCK COUNTIES WERE IN
MODERATE DROUGHT. IMPACTS OF MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS INCLUDE
SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES. THE REST OF WEST TEXAS WAS EITHER
ABNORMALLY DRY OR OUT OF DROUGHT, MOSTLY OUT OF DROUGHT.  IN
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, NORTHWEST EDDY COUNTY REMAINED IN MODERATE
DROUGHT.  THE REST OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WAS EITHER ABNORMALLY DRY
OR OUT OF DROUGHT, MOSTLY OUT OF DROUGHT.

RAINFALL OVER THE PAST MONTH HAS GENERALLY BEEN NEAR-NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL, BUT ALL LOCATIONS ARE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR
ANNUAL RAINFALL.  HOWEVER, WATER SHORTAGES REMAIN, AND MANDATORY
WATER USE RESTRICTIONS REMAIN IN PLACE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

AS OF 5 MARCH, BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT EVERYWHERE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
EXCEPT ANDREWS, BORDEN, BREWSTER, DAWSON, GAINES, LOVING, MARTIN,
PRESIDIO, REAGAN, SCURRY, AND TERRELL COUNTIES.

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI)
AS A SYSTEM FOR RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR.  IT IS A NUMERICAL INDEX
CALCULATED DAILY.  EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION, IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH, NEEDED TO BRING THE SOIL
BACK TO SATURATION.  THE INDEX RANGES FROM 0 TO 800, WITH 0
REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.  AS OF
4 MARCH, THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX SHOWED VALUES RANGING FROM
LESS THAN 200 WEST OF THE PECOS TO NEAR 500 IN THE PERMIAN BASIN.
THE 400 TO 600 RANGE IS TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER AND EARLY FALL.  IN
THIS RANGE, LOWER LITTER AND DUFF LAYERS CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE
INTENSITY AND WILL BURN ACTIVELY.  NOTE THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE
QUICKLY FROM DAY TO DAY AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.  THE
TEXAS FOREST SERVICE ADVISES TO WATCH OUT FOR KEY CRITICAL WEATHER
THRESHOLDS OF WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 25
PERCENT.  WHEN THESE THRESHOLDS ARE MET OR EXCEEDED, FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS CROP WEATHER REPORT ISSUED 3 MARCH BY THE
TEXAS A&M AGRICULTURE PROGRAM, IN THE FAR WEST, PASTURE AND
RANGELAND RATINGS VARIED WIDELY, FROM VERY POOR TO EXCELLENT, WITH
POOR BEING THE MOST COMMON RATING.  TOPSOIL MOISTURE VARIED WIDELY
TOO, FROM 90 PERCENT VERY SHORT TO 100 PERCENT FAIR, WITH ADEQUATE
BEING THE MOST COMMON RATING.  SUBSOIL MOISTURE VARIED TOO, WITH
ADEQUATE BEING MOST COMMON.  PECAN GROWERS WERE CLEANING UP
ORCHARDS, AND HEDGING AND PRUNING.  COTTON GROWERS WERE PREPARING
LAND FOR PLANTING.  ALFALFA WAS COMING OUT OF DORMANCY AND UNDER
IRRIGATION.  LIMITED IRRIGATION WATER IN SOME AREAS WAS AFFECTING
PLANTING DECISIONS. WEEDS WERE ABUNDANT IN THE PASTURES DUE TO THE
FALL AND WINTER PRECIPITATION.

IN THE SOUTH PLAINS, TWO STRONG COLD FRONTS BROUGHT EXTREMELY LOW
TEMPERATURES AND SNOW THROUGHOUT THE REGION.  SNOW AMOUNTS RANGED
FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE AREA, WITH THE MOST SNOW FALLING
IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES.  FREEZING RAIN, DRIZZLE AND FREEZING FOG
ACCOMPANIED THE SNOW.  WINTER WHEAT GENERALLY IMPROVED WITH THE
MOISTURE, BUT THERE MAY HAVE BEEN SOME FREEZE DAMAGE. HOWEVER,
PRODUCERS WERE GRATEFUL FOR THE MOISTURE BUT WERE CONCERNED ABOUT
BEING ABLE TO GET PRE-PLANT HERBICIDES APPLIED IN A TIMELY MANNER.
EXTREMELY LOW WIND CHILLS STRESSED LIVESTOCK.  RANGELAND AND
PASTURES WERE IN MOSTLY FAIR CONDITION.  THE PREVIOUS WEEKS MOISTURE
FOLLOWED BY SOME WARM DAYS BENEFITED COOL-SEASON GRASSES.  DURING
THE COLD WEATHER, RANCHERS WERE PROVIDING EXTRA SUPPLEMENTAL FEED TO
CATTLE.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

SINCE 1 JANUARY, THE FOLLOWING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE REPORTED:

MIDLAND HAS RECEIVED 2.82 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS 1.35
INCHES.

CARLSBAD HAS HAD 1.19 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS AROUND
0.96 INCHES.

MARFA HAS HAD 1.75 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS AROUND 1.08
INCHES.

FORT STOCKTON HAS HAD 2.47 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS
AROUND 1.32 INCHES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER, OR CPC, AS OF 5 MARCH,
EL NINO HAS ARRIVED, AND A EL NINO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.  THERE IS
AN APPROXIMATELY 50-60% CHANCE THAT EL NINO CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUMMER 2015.

THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY FOR WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO FORECASTS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND
NORMAL- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

AS A RESULT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ABOVE, THE
LATEST U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK, ISSUED 19 FEBRUARY BY THE CPC,
INDICATES DROUGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY...

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF 5 MARCH:

                  NORMAL   POOL    24-HR   MAX DEPTH  % CONSERVATION
RESERVOIR          POOL    TODAY   CHANGE    TODAY       CAPACITY
---------          ----    -----   ------    -----       --------
JB THOMAS        2258.00  2238.86   0.00     38.86         44.4
COLORADO CITY    2070.20  2047.05   0.01     32.05         21.2
CHAMPION CREEK   2083.00  2034.94   0.01     35.04          5.5
NATURAL DAM SALT 2457.00  2447.33   0.00         +         48.6
MOSS CREEK       2337.00  2326.03   0.25     34.03         56.0
BRANTLEY         3256.70  3264.46   0.01     58.46        221.0
AVALON           3177.40  3176.58   0.01      7.58         84.0
RED BLUFF        2827.40  2825.71   0.03     61.52         91.8

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES:

OUR LOCAL DROUGHT WEB PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/MAF/VERSION.PHP?PIL=DGTMAF&CWI=1&N=0

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:  HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

NOAA DROUGHT PAGE:  HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/ NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/

NWS AHPS:  HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/

USGS:  HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

USACE:  HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC):  HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY & WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER (NCDC), THE IB&WC, THE USDA, STATE
AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS, AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT
MITIGATION CENTER.  INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED
FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES, STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES, THE USDA, USACE, AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT, PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2500 CHALLENGER DRIVE
MIDLAND TEXAS 79706
PHONE: 432-563-5006

$$

DEBERRY
















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