Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 210118
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210117
PAZ000-NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-210245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0408
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0817 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN PA...SWRN NJ...CNTRL/ERN
MD...DE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 90...

VALID 210117Z - 210245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 90 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SVR RISK CONTINUES ACROSS REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF
WW 90. LOCAL TEMPORAL EXTENSION OF THE WW WILL BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...ONGOING SCATTERED CONVECTION IS CONGEALING INTO
SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SPREADING EWD/NEWD ACROSS PARTS
OF CNTRL/ERN PA...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN MD W OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EWD/NEWD...WITH THE SVR
RISK CONTINUING ACROSS PARTS OF ERN PA AND PERHAPS SWRN NJ BEYOND
THE SCHEDULED 02Z WW EXPIRATION TIME OWING TO RELATIVELY STRONGER
MID-LEVEL ASCENT AMIDST STRONG DEEP SHEAR. THIS WILL WARRANT LOCAL
TEMPORAL OF THE WW. HOWEVER...WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AMIDST
RELATIVELY MODEST TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE /REF. IAD 00Z RAOB THAT
SAMPLED PW AROUND 0.9 INCH/ AND LACKING DCVA...THE SVR RISK SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT A NEW WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED ATTM.

..COHEN.. 04/21/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   38467717 39147664 39667764 40417769 41137720 41447662
            40257528 39397507 38507575 38467717



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