Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 252208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252207
SCZ000-GAZ000-252300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0459
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0507 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AND SERN GA...SRN HALF OF SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 252207Z - 252300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL GA WILL SPREAD TOWARDS
E-CNTRL GA AND SRN SC AFTER 00Z. DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...AND A WW WILL BE CONSIDERED SOON.

DISCUSSION...AIR MASS RECOVERY IS OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION ACROSS ERN GA AND SRN SC...WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S F. MODEST DESTABILIZATION HAS
OCCURRED /MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG/ TO SUPPORT MAINTENANCE OF
UPSTREAM CONVECTION INTO E-CNTRL GA...WITH CURRENT MOTION SUGGESTING
THIS WILL OCCUR BY 00Z. ADDITIONAL WEAK CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING
WITHIN A W-E BAND ACROSS SERN GA.

VEERING/WEAK SFC WINDS ACROSS THE REGION IS YIELDING LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING
50 KT...WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH OCCASIONAL CELL
SPLITS LIKELY. GIVEN THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE...PRIMARY THREATS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...

LAT...LON   31358146 31948219 32888212 33278210 33548143 33578080
            33468014 33297957 33057935 32178062 31358146




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