Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 261744
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261744
SCZ000-261945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0466
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261744Z - 261945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SC. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...A SLOWLY SWWD MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS SC SHOULD
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. SFC TEMPERATURES ALONG AND S OF THIS
FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS OF 17Z...WITH
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF UPSTATE SC. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...MLCAPE
SHOULD INCREASE UP TO 1000-1250 J/KG GIVEN MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.0-6.5 C/KM.

UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT THAT IS ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE SFC BOUNDARY MAY PROMOTE INITIAL SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD GROW UPSCALE INTO MULTICELL/BOWING
STRUCTURES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. AREA RADARS DEPICT ELEVATED
SHOWERS THAT HAVE RECENTLY FORMED OVER CHEROKEE COUNTY SC TO THE
COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...WHICH COUPLED WITH A DEEPENING CUMULUS
FIELD ON VISIBLE SATELLITE...MAY SIGNAL THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

REGARDLESS...THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL PROBABLY
ACT TO LIMIT A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE MCD AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

..GLEASON/MEAD.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   32597929 32358068 33408185 34268267 35148236 35148188
            34798085 34227968 33817869 33287863 32597929



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